Agreed. To quote myself like some kind of asshole:
In order for a prediction market to be “serious”, it has to allow epistemically rational people to get very very rich (in fiat currency) without going to jail, and it has to allow anyone to create and arbitrate a binary prediction market for a small fee. Such a platform does not currently exist.
Ignore this post.
TikTok isn’t doing any work here, I compile the text to mp4 using a script I wrote.
Thanks!
might be able to find a better voice synthesizer that can be a bit more engaging (not sure if TikTok supplies this)
Don’t think I can do this that easily. I’m currently calling Amazon Polly, AWS’ TTS service, from a python script I wrote to render these videos. Tiktok does supply an (imo) annoying-sounding female TTS voice, but that’s off the table since I would have to enter all the text manually on my phone.
experimentation is king.
I could use Amazon’s Mechanical Turk to run low-cost focus groups.
True, but then I have to time the text-transitions manually.
The “anti-zoomer” sentiment is partially “anti-my-younger-self” sentiment. I, personally, had to expend a good deal of effort to improve my attention span, wean myself off of social media, and reclaim whole hours of my day. I’m frustrated because I know that more is possible.
I fail to see how this is an indictment of your friend’s character, or an indication that he is incapable of reading.
That friend did, in fact, try multiple times to read books. He got distracted every time. He wanted to be the kind of guy that could finish books, but he couldn’t. I used to be a lot more like he was. For the record, he has since read books (good ones, too).
More likely, he rationally viewed school as a day job, and optimized towards getting the grade that he wanted with a minimum of effort, in order to build slack for other activities, such as performing well on the math team.
Of course. We all did that. I do not identify with my academic performance (I dropped out of college). Also, we went to a boarding school, and as his former roommate, I can tell you that neither of us studied in our free time. He’s just better at doing math than I am.
It’s not that Zoomers can’t read (an accusation that older generations have been leveling against younger ones since time immemorial)
No, this time really is different. I know a guy (not dumb either) who spends >7h a day on TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube. Some of us can’t sit through movies. Never before in history has there been as strong an optimization pressure for eyeballs, and there is no demographic more subject to that pressure than mine.
Thank you for the feedback! I didn’t consider the inherent jumpiness/grabbiness of Subway Surfers, but you’re right, something more continuous is preferable. (edit: but isn’t the point of the audio to allow your eyes to stray? hmm)
I will probably also take your advice wrt using the Highlights and CFAR handbook excerpts in lieu of the entire remainder of R:AZ.
guessing this wouldn’t work without causal attention masking
I worked on this problem for the USAF! Not to give too much away, but we use ML for this now.
distillation of Taleb’s core idea:
expected value estimates are dominated by tail events (unless the distribution is thin-tailed)
repeated sampling from a distribution usually does not yield information about tail events
therefore repeated sampling can be used to estimate EVs iff the distribution is thin-tailed according to your priors
if the distribution is fat-tailed according to your priors, how to determine EV?
estimating EV is much harder
some will say to use the sample mean as EV anyway, they are wrong
in the absence of information on tail events (which is v common)
you must judge the fatness of the left/right tails based on your priors
right tail is fat and left is thin: high EV
left tail is fat and right is thin: low EV (/ high magnitude in the negative direction)
both tails are fat: EV is highly uncertain
to reiterate:
when calculating EV of a distribution that you have samples from:
the burden of proof is on you to show that you are operating in a thin-tailed domain
before you use the sample mean as an estimate of EV
else, you must rely on your prior beliefs on the fatness of the tails of the distribution
Could also be that you’re a more reliable worker if you have a ton of student debt.
Wouldn’t curing aging turn people into longtermists?
If you can’t see why a single modern society locking in their current values would be a tragedy of enormous proportions, imagine an ancient civilization such as the Romans locking in their specific morals 2000 years ago. Moral progress is real, and important.
That wouldn’t be a tragedy if I were a Roman.
Meanwhile, Adderall works for people whether they “have” “ADHD” or not. It may work better for people with ADHD – a lot of them report an almost “magical” effect – but it works at least a little for most people. There is a vast literature trying to disprove this. Its main strategy is to show Adderall doesn’t enhance cognition in healthy people. Fine. But mostly it doesn’t enhance cognition in people with ADHD either. People aren’t using Adderall to get smart, they’re using it to focus. From Prescription stimulants in individuals with and without attention deficit hyperactivity disorder:
It has never been established that the cognitive effects of stimulant drugs are central to their therapeutic utility. In fact, although ADHD medications are effective for the behavioral components of the disorder, little information exists concerning their effects on cognition…stimulant drugs do improve the ability (even without ADHD) to focus and pay attention.
I cannot tell you how much literature there is trying to convince you that Adderall will not help healthy people, nor how consistently college students disprove every word of it every finals season.
Adderall.
Set up two bitcoin wallets, transfer funds from one to the other, and put your hash in the message field.
The bitcoin blockchain is both immutable and public, making it an ideal medium for sealed predictions. While the LW servers might be compromised, there are game-theoretic guarantees that the blockchain won’t be.
Much of why my priors say that the e/acc thing is organic is just my gestalt impression of being on Twitter while it was happening. Unfortunately, that’s not a legible source of evidence to people-who-aren’t-me. I’ll tell you what information I do remember, though:
“Bitalik Vuterin” does not ring a bell, I don’t think he was a very consequential figure to begin with.
@BasedBeffJezos claims to be the same person as @BasedBeff, and claims that he was locked out of his @BasedBeff account on 2022-08-08 due to “misinformation”, which he attributes to “blue checkmarks and scared EAs”.
I’m only like 85% certain about this claim, but I think @bayeslord made an “I quit” thread where he claimed that he was actually kinda sympathetic to EA all along, and e/acc was more of a joke, or maybe that it was actually meant to strengthen EA by red-teaming it. I’m even less certain about this next claim (~55%), but I think he mentioned getting an overwhelming amount of DMs from EAs trying to debate him.
Yes. From the same comment:
And:
I have since updated against hypotheses that it is possible to achieve anything of consequence via legislation. Also, now that the political goodwill and funding potential of FTX has been eliminated, the legislative path is even more implausible.
Therefore, the best plan is to build a serious prediction market on the Ethereum blockchain, and rely on reputation systems (think Ebay star ratings) to incentivize trustworthy market arbitration.