Submission: For the counterfactual Oracle, draft a nuclear arms agreement most likely to achieve X outcome (counterfactually if we didn’t see the Oracle’s answer). X could be a reduction in nuclear arsenals, number of countries signing the agreement, reduction in risk of accidental or intentional missile launches, etc. In some cases, the reward could be determined directly by e.g. counting the number of countries signing on. If nebulous “risk reduction” is the goal, perhaps the change in the median guess in an appropriate Metaculus question could determine the reward. See, for example, this question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/
David Rothermich
Karma: 4
This one may be breaking the rules due to the use of too many Oracles. If so, please strike this submission.
Submission: In round one, for three counterfactual Oracles, draft an international agreement to achieve goals X, Y, or Z (counterfactually if we didn’t see the Oracle’s answer). Sample goals: reduction in nuclear war risk, reduction in global deaths due to starvation, increase in asteroid detection capabilities, raising the global GDP growth rate, etc.
In round two, for a low bandwidth Oracle, present the three agreements and ask it to pick the agreement most likely to achieve the stated goal.
The counterfactual Oracle with the selected agreement would be rewarded. The reward for the low bandwidth Oracle could be determined as in my prior submission, either directly by measuring the results of the treaty, or as evaluated by an independent third party such as Metaculus.
Submission for low bandwidth Oracle. Commission several movie screenplays designed to raise public support for dramatic life extension research. Present the screenplays to the Oracle and ask it to rank them in order of expected impact. You could then move forward with trying to create the movie, and reward the Oracle based on box office receipts or change in public polling results.
My prior submission with a similar subject, to a counterfactual Oracle, had a risk that the Oracle would sneak in subversive messages. This approach would alleviate that risk, with the downside being that the final product may be less impactful.
Submission for the counterfactual Oracle. Commit to commissioning some creative work, such as a book or screenplay, designed to raise public support for dramatic life extension research. Ask the Oracle to predict the content of the finished product (counterfactually if we didn’t see the Oracle’s answer).
Rewards could be determined a couple of ways. You could perform public polling about this topic before and after the book is published or movie made, and reward the Oracle based on how much public opinion shifted. Or the reward could be a direct function of book sales or box office receipts.
This could help alleviate bottlenecks in dramatic life extension research (or some other issue) by increasing funding or increasing the number of researchers to enter the field.