Submission: For the counterfactual Oracle, draft a nuclear arms agreement most likely to achieve X outcome (counterfactually if we didn’t see the Oracle’s answer). X could be a reduction in nuclear arsenals, number of countries signing the agreement, reduction in risk of accidental or intentional missile launches, etc. In some cases, the reward could be determined directly by e.g. counting the number of countries signing on. If nebulous “risk reduction” is the goal, perhaps the change in the median guess in an appropriate Metaculus question could determine the reward. See, for example, this question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/
Submission: For the counterfactual Oracle, draft a nuclear arms agreement most likely to achieve X outcome (counterfactually if we didn’t see the Oracle’s answer). X could be a reduction in nuclear arsenals, number of countries signing the agreement, reduction in risk of accidental or intentional missile launches, etc. In some cases, the reward could be determined directly by e.g. counting the number of countries signing on. If nebulous “risk reduction” is the goal, perhaps the change in the median guess in an appropriate Metaculus question could determine the reward. See, for example, this question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/