Sure, I’m talking about heuristics. Don’t think that’s a mistake, though, in an instance with so many unknowns. I agree that my comment above is not a counter-argument, per se, just explaining why your statement goes over my head.
Since you prefer specificity: Why on Earth do you anticipate that?
I can’t argue that cryonics would strike me as an excellent deal if I believed that, but that seems wildly optimistic.