So although I would endorse Aumann-adjusting as a final verdict with many of the people on this site, I think it’s great that we have discussions—even heated discussions—first, and I think a lot of those discussions might look from the outside like disrespect and refusal to Aumann adjust.
I agree that what look like disrespectful discussions at first could eventually lead to Aumann agreement, but my impression is that there are a lot of persistent disagreements within the online rationalist community. Eliezer’s disagreements with Robin Hanson are well-known. My impression is that even people within MIRI have persistent disagreements with each other, though not as big as the Eliezer-Robin disagreements. I don’t know for sure Alicorn and I would continue to disagree about the ethics of white lies if we talked it out thoroughly, but it wouldn’t remotely surprise me. Et cetera.
The role that IQ is playing here is that of a quasi-objective Outside View measure of a person’s ability to be correct and rational. It is, of course, a very very lossy measure that often goes horribly wrong. On the other hand, it makes a useful counterbalance to our subjective measure of “I feel I’m definitely right; this other person has nothing to teach me.”
So we have two opposite failure modes to avoid here. The first failure mode is the one where we fetishize the specific IQ number even when our own rationality tells us something is wrong—like Plantiga being apparently a very smart individual, but his arguments being terribly flawed. The second failure mode is the one where we’re too confident in our own instincts, even when the numbers tell us the people on the other side are smarter than we are. For example, a creationist says “I’m sure that creationism is true, and it doesn’t matter whether really fancy scientists who use big words tell me it isn’t.”
I guess I need to clarify that I think IQ is a terrible proxy for rationality, that the correlation is weak at best. And your suggested heuristic will do nothing to stop high IQ crackpots from ignoring the mainstream scientific consensus. Or even low IQ crackpots who can find high IQ crackpots to support them. This is actually a thing that happens with some creationists—people thinking “because I’m an , I can see those evolutionary biologists are talking nonsense.” Creationists would do better to attend to the domain expertise of evolutionary biologists. (See also: my post on the statistician’s fallacy.)
I’m also curious as to how much of your willingness to agree with me in dismissing Plantinga is based on him being just one person. Would you be more inclined to take a sizeable online community of Plantingas seriously?
Unless you are way way way more charitable than I am, I have a hard time believing that you are anywhere near the territory where the advice “be less charitable” is more helpful than the advice “be more charitable”.
As I said above, you can try to pinpoint where to apply this advice. You don’t need to be charitable to really stupid people with no knowledge of a field. But once you’ve determined someone is in a reference class where there’s a high prior on them having good ideas—they’re smart, well-educated, have a basic committment to rationality—advising that someone be less charitable to these people seems a lot like advising people to eat more and exercise less—it might be useful in a couple of extreme cases, but I really doubt it’s where the gain for the average person lies.
On the one hand, I dislike the rhetoric of charity as I see it happen on LessWrong. On the other hand, in practice, you’re probably right that people aren’t too charitable. In practice, the problem is selective charity—a specific kind of selective charity, slanted towards favoring people’s in-group. And you seem to endorse this selective charity.
I’ve already said why I don’t think high IQ is super-relevant to deciding who you should read charitably. Overall education also doesn’t strike me as super-relevant either. In the US, better educated Republicans are more likely to deny global warming and think that Obama’s a Muslim. That appears to be because (a) you can get a college degree without ever taking a class on climate science and (b) more educated conservatives are more likely to know what they’re “supposed” to believe about certain issues. Of course, when someone has a Ph.D. in a relevant field, I’d agree that you should be more inclined to assume they’re not saying anything stupid about that field (though even that presumption is weakened if they’re saying something that would be controversial among their peers).
As for “basic commitment to rationality,” I’m not sure what you mean by that. I don’t know how I’d turn it into a useful criterion, aside from defining it to mean people I’d trust for other reasons (e.g. endorsing standard attitudes of mainstream academia). It’s quite easy for even creationists to declare their commitment to rationality. On the other hand, if you think someone’s membership in the online rationalist community is a strong reason to treat what they say charitably, yeah, I’m calling that self-congratulatory nonsense.
And that’s the essence of my reply to your point #5. It’s not people having self-congratulatory attitudes on an individual level. It’s the self-congratulatory attitudes towards their in-group.
How much have you looked into potential confounders for these things? With the processed meat thing in particular, I’ve wondered what could be so bad about processing meat, and if this could be one of those things where education and wealth are correlated with health, so if wealthy, well-educated people start doing something, it becomes correlated with health too. In that particular case, it would be a case of processed meat being cheap, and therefore eaten by poor people more, while steak tends to be expensive.
(This may be totally wrong, but it seems like an important concern to have investigated.)