Brillyant

Karma: 1,346

Brillyant Nov 18, 2021, 8:34 PM
2 points
in reply to: James_Miller’s comment on: James_Miller’s Shortform
It’s extremely weird that atomic weapons have not been used in anger since WW II, and we know that humanity got lucky on several occasions, UFOs seems to like to be around ships that have nuclear weapons and power so I assign some non-trivial probability to aliens having saved us from nuclear war.
Bird watchers also tend to see more birds.
I’d imagine there are more sensors and eyeballs looking in the skies at high security facilities, thus more UAP.
What is the name of this bias?

Brillyant Nov 18, 2021, 7:11 PM
8 points
in reply to: skot523’s comment on: Why I am no longer driven
In America, many people are searching for the extreme versions of success, and we’ve been conditioned to see significantly above average levels of success as the baseline.
Drake meme:
- Working out, sleeping well, and eating reasonably to stay in shape = meh
- Having 8 pack abs, 20″ biceps & being able to 360 dunk a basketball = YEAH, that’s what I’m talkin’ bout!
If you’re going to have extreme success, I think it often takes some extreme variables in the equation. That might be extreme talent (or extreme wealth or extreme-ly valuable personal/professional networks), such that extreme work isn’t required.
But sometimes extreme work and discipline is necessary if you want to achieve extreme results.
You may decide at some point you no longer value obtaining some extreme result enough to continue it’s pursuit. I think that’s wise, as I’ve found the cost is too high and life is too short.

Brillyant Sep 21, 2017, 1:29 PM
2 points
in reply to: IlyaShpitser’s comment on: Open thread, September 18 - September 24, 2017

Plenty of evidence.

Any that you find particularly clear and compelling?

Brillyant Sep 20, 2017, 5:35 PM
0 points
on: Open thread, September 18 - September 24, 2017
Anyone following the role American football may play in long term brain injuries? Subconcussive hits to the head accumulating to cause problems?

Anyone have thoughts?

Brillyant Sep 19, 2017, 5:45 PM
3 points
on: Open thread, September 18 - September 24, 2017
Fix RECENT ON RATIONALITY BLOGS.

Brillyant Sep 18, 2017, 2:09 PM
0 points
in reply to: John_Maxwell’s comment on: New business opportunities due to self-driving cars
I was criticising the criticism of this post.

I feel like you’re taking all of this way too seriously.

Fix the “RECENT ON RATIONALITY BLOGS”

Brillyant Sep 7, 2017, 9:33 PM
2 points
in reply to: jmh’s comment on: Is life worth living?
This answer has too many upvotes in my view.

I suspect it was here early in the discussion and people upvoted for whatever reason it is people upvote early comments.

Brillyant Sep 7, 2017, 9:29 PM
0 points
in reply to: Dagon’s comment on: New business opportunities due to self-driving cars
Yes. LW’s content is too good for this.

Brillyant Jun 30, 2017, 4:55 PM
0 points
in reply to: Elo’s comment on: What useless things did you understand recently?
Okay. How do you do it?

Brillyant May 16, 2017, 9:26 PM
0 points
in reply to: Viliam’s comment on: Open thread, May 15 - May 21, 2017

Things you cannot control directly—what your metabolism actually does with the food you put in your mouth

Agreed. Some people have significantly higher metabolisms.

Things this model doesn’t even mention—there are other important things about the food, not just calories

Agreed. I’m not talking about nutrition, just weight loss.

Brillyant May 16, 2017, 9:18 PM
0 points
in reply to: ChristianKl’s comment on: Open thread, May 15 - May 21, 2017
To the extent people yo-yo, I think the novelty wears off and old habits come back. You’re often dealing with months or years of new diet versus decades of old habitual diet.

I mean you notice the differences more in the first phase of a diet. You may have some New Diet Energy! that gives you a boost and helps counter the differences.

After a while, you can get accustomed to less food.

Brillyant May 15, 2017, 5:06 PM
11 points
on: Open thread, May 15 - May 21, 2017
Some random barely-edited thoughts on my experience with weight loss:

In the midst of a diet where I will lose 15 lbs (15.9lb, from 185.8 lb to 169.9, to be exact) in 40 days.

I have 95% certainty I will reach this goal in the appointed time. Even if I don’t reach exactly 169.9lb, I’ll be close, so whether or not I hit the exact number is arbitrary for my purposes. (I’m losing some weight to see if it helps a lingering back injury.)

I’m just eating a disciplined diet and working out according to a consistent schedule.

My diet is simple and not starvation-y at all. Most people wouldn’t do it because it’s repetitive (I literally eat the same thing nearly everyday so I can know my calorie intake without any counting.)

My workout isn’t hard but most people wouldn’t do it because...I don’t know why, it’s just my experience that people won’t. It’s 4-5 days per week of 30-60 minutes cardio and 30-60 minutes of weight training. I have a back injury that’s limiting me, so it’s nothing terribly rigorous.

...

In my years at health clubs, talking to health-club-going people, I’ve seen all the evidence I’ll ever need to believe, basically, the Calories In / Calories Out model of weight loss is correct.

My opinion of the rationality community’s view of weight loss is that it’s bad. In fact, it is what I would consider anti-advice—the sort of thing you would introduce someone to if you wanted them to fail at weight loss. (Like in Mean Girls when Lindsey Lohan gives Rachel McAdams Swedish weight-gaining bars and tells her they are for weight loss.)

...

Some of my rough and random thoughts on managing weight:
- Lean muscle mass is responsible for ~65% of individual differences in BMR.
- People have significant differences in metabolism that are probably genetic predispositions. These differences can mean people who behave identically (same diet and exercise routine) will end up with very different weights.
- No one should be shamed for their weight anymore than someone should be shamed for their height. (This is obvious, but needs to be said ’cuz “fat shaming” is an applause light used by the crowd who thinks anything resembling a simple CICO model for weight loss is bad and cruel.)
- You shouldn’t necessarily care about weight loss and our culture is fucked up for making people feel bad about their weight.
- Losing weight can be really hard.
- Diet is a central component to our lives, and changes in diet make people emotional, tired, etc.
- Weight is a very personal issue and body image’s importance in our culture, for better or worse, can not be overstated.
- Exercising is a hard habit to adopt.
- People lie. Self-reporting of diet and exercise is full of inaccuracies.
- Changing your diet and exercise routine is akin to changing other habits and is subject to the same sorts of difficulties and failure modes.
- The first 2-5 weeks of big diet changes are fucking hard, but it gets easier like any habit change.
- Atkins, and other low carb diets, work because ’Murican diets are high calorie AND carb-centric. Cutting all carbs for a while means also cutting your total calories significantly. The published woo reasons why they work are mostly bullshit. It’s just calorie cutting while giving you a shot at forming different long-term diet habits.
- There may be some foods that speed metabolism, some foods that are good to eat at certain times during the day, some food that satiate more than others for any given person, etc...
- But the Eat Less/Exercise More model is tried and true.

Brillyant Apr 6, 2017, 9:02 PM
0 points
in reply to: gwern’s comment on: The Ancient God Who Rules High School

and sports

It is?

Brillyant Apr 4, 2017, 4:47 PM
2 points
in reply to: 9eB1’s comment on: Open thread, Apr. 03 - Apr. 09, 2017

It’s sort of silly to say that that means it should be called the “irrationality community.” Tyler Cowen is implicitly putting himself at the vantage point of a more objective observer with the criticism, which I find ironic.

It did seem to be a pretty bold and frontal critique. And “irrationality community” is probably silly. But I agree LW, et al has at times a religious and dogmatic feel to it. In this way the RC becomes something like the opposite of the label it carries. That seems to be his point.

As an aside, I think Lumifer is a funny name. I always associate it with Lumiere from Beauty and the Beast, and with Lucifer. Basically I always picture your posts as coming from a cross between a cartoon candle and Satan.

Yes. Yes.

If this wasn’t exactly the mental image I had of Lumifer before, then it is now.

Maybe a bit more Satan than cartoon

Brillyant Apr 4, 2017, 4:19 PM
0 points
in reply to: Lumifer’s comment on: Men without work,or prospects

Susan Rice was involved in wiretapping Trump

Found Sean Hannity.

Brillyant Mar 29, 2017, 9:47 PM
0 points
in reply to: 9eB1’s comment on: IQ and Magnus Carlsen, Leo Messi and the Decathlon

The tallest player to ever play in the NBA was Gheorghe Mureșan, who was 7′7″. He was not very good.

He wasn’t? He average 15 pts and 10 rebounds (and 2 blocks) as a 24 year old in the NBA. He had injuries, but was effective for a time when healthy.

Brillyant Mar 3, 2017, 6:49 PM
0 points
in reply to: Lumifer’s comment on: Open Thread, Feb. 27 - March 5, 2017
I agree Ashton Kutcher doesn’t pass my initial presidential smell test. But I’m not sure Trump did either, especially as a GOP candidate...

Thrice married. Foreign born trophy wife. Only recently pro life. Just fine with gay marriage. Not terribly fiscally conservative. Prone to vulgarity. Bromantic af with Putin. Proud adulterer & pussy grabber. Orange.

GOP: We’ll take it!

Brillyant Mar 3, 2017, 3:21 PM
2 points
in reply to: Good_Burning_Plastic’s comment on: Open Thread, Feb. 27 - March 5, 2017
Leonardo DiCaprio, Meryl Streep, Katy Perry, Rosie O’Donnell and Beyonce are on the list and seem to fit the criteria I’m curious about.

Acting skill seems as if it would be very helpful in a political campaign. And just general confidence in a public forum.

You don’t need to actually know anything; you just need to convince people you know things.

Trump’s last speech has been mostly praised as one of his most presidential. This is, in large part, because he read what other people wrote for him in a president-sounding voice and didn’t deviate much from the script and ad lib like he normally does.

I would think Tom Hanks or Meryl Streep or DiCaprio could be pretty damned captivating from the podium or even in debates with a bit of a crash course in current affairs.

Brillyant Mar 3, 2017, 3:12 PM
0 points
in reply to: MrMind’s comment on: Open Thread, Feb. 27 - March 5, 2017
Agreed.

Brillyant Mar 3, 2017, 2:28 PM
2 points
in reply to: MrMind’s comment on: Open Thread, Feb. 27 - March 5, 2017
I was joking.