BrandonReinhart

Karma: 1,038

BrandonReinhart Mar 18, 2012, 12:08 AM
9 points
on: What are YOU doing against risks from AI?
Carl Shulman has been convincing that I should do nothing directly (in terms of labor) on the problem on AI risks, instead become successful elsewhere, and then direct resources as I am able toward the problem.

However I believe I should 1) continue to educate myself on the topic 2) try to learn to be a better rationalist so when I do have resources I can direct them effectively 3) work toward being someone who can gain access to more resources 4) find ways to better optimize my lifestyle.

At one point I seriously considered running off to San Fran to be in the thick of things, but I now believe that would have been a strictly worse choice. Sometimes the best thing you can do is to do what you already do well and hope to direct the proceeds towards helping people. Even when it feels like this is selfish, disengaged, or remote.

BrandonReinhart Mar 17, 2012, 11:41 PM
5 points
in reply to: [deleted]’s comment on: Cult impressions of Less Wrong/Singularity Institute
I will say that I feel 95% confident that SIAI is not a cult because I spent time there (mjcurzi was there also), learned from their members, observed their processes of teaching rationality, hung out for fun, met other people who were interested, etc. Everyone involved seemed well meaning, curious, critical, etc. No one was blindly following orders. In the realm of teaching rationality, there was much agreement it should be taught, some agreement on how, but total openness to failure and finding alternate methods. I went to the minicamp wondering (along with John Salvatier) whether the SIAI was a cult and obtained lots of evidence to push me far away from that position.

I wonder if the cult accusation in part comes from the fact that it seems too good to be true, so we feel a need for defensive suspicion. Rationality is very much about changing one’s mind and thinking about this we become suspicious that the goals of SIAI are to change our minds in a particular way. Then we discover that in fact the SIAI’s goals (are in part) to change our minds in a particular way so we think our suspicions are justified.

My model tells me that stepping into a church is several orders of magnitude more psychologically dangerous than stepping into a Less Wrong meetup or the SIAI headquarters.

(The other 5% goes to things like “they are a cult and totally duped me and I don’t know it”, “they are a cult and I was too distant from their secret inner cabals to discover it”, “they are a cult and I don’t know what to look for”, “they aren’t a cult but they want to be one and are screwing it up”, etc. I should probably feel more confident about this than 95%, but my own inclination to be suspicious of people who want to change how I think means I’m being generous with my error. I have a hard time giving these alternate stories credit.)

BrandonReinhart Oct 12, 2011, 8:45 AM
1 point
in reply to: dreeves’s comment on: Anti-akrasia tool: like stickK.com for data nerds
Thanks for taking the time to respond.

I rebuilt my guitar thing and added today’s datapoint and now it seems to be predicting my path properly. Makes more sense now. I think I was confused at first because I had made a custom graph instead of using the “Do More” prefab.

Neat software!

BrandonReinhart Oct 12, 2011, 5:38 AM
5 points
in reply to: Kaj_Sotala’s comment on: 1001 PredictionBook Nights
An exercise we ran at minicamp—which seemed valuable, but requires a partner—is to take and argue for a position for some time. Then, at some interval, you switch and argue against the position (while your partner defends). I used this once at work, but haven’t had a chance since. The suggestion to swap sides mid argument surprised the two, but did lead to a more effective discussion.

The exercise sometimes felt forced if the topic was artificial and veered too far off course, or if one side was simply convinced and felt that further artificial defense was unproductive.

Still, it’s a riff on this theme.

BrandonReinhart Oct 12, 2011, 1:23 AM
1 point
on: Anti-akrasia tool: like stickK.com for data nerds
- It’s a little strange that I have to set up the first data point when I register the goal. I’d rather set up the goal, then do the first day’s work. I suppose this is splitting hairs.
I created two goals:

https://www.beeminder.com/greenmarine

Both goals have perfectly tight roads. Is this correct? I would like to give myself some variance, since I’ll probably not ever do exactly 180 minutes in a day. To start, I fudged the first day’s value at the goal value.

Based on how you describe the system, it looks like I should expect to pay $5 if I practice 179 minutes.
- How do I delete a goal if I screw it up in some way?
- Is the goal value a median or is it a target?
- I would like the ability to expressly exclude days at a certain rate. Like “I will practice ear training approximately X minutes per day, 5 out of 7 days a week.”
- Is there a ‘vacation’ feature? If I’m on a holiday, I might not be able to maintain certain goals. I would expect vacations to have to be declared in advance, though, to prevent someone from using it as a method of worming out of an impending failure.
- I really like that you are iterating on your concept publicly. This is the way to go. I hope you are able to move towards success. Are you tracking your software development goals in the same software?
- An exponential punishment curve seems harsh. Is the concern that a linear rate of punishment might lead to basically buying indulgences? I would think that even linear curves at good rates would create incentive.
- The data tracking features are interesting to me and one reason I might try this. Is there a way to export the data? If I did use this, then it would be cool to import the data into a practice log. AHA. Found the export button!
- Some goals might contain periodic sub-goals. For example, a musical practice goal might include X days of “spend % of this time on speed improvement” this is an idea for a future feature. These could spin off to become their own goal graphs if the user wanted, otherwise they are simply children of the main goal.

BrandonReinhart Sep 21, 2011, 7:11 AM
5 points
in reply to: gwern’s comment on: Case Study: Reading Edge’s financial filings
It would actually be worthwhile to post a small analysis of Lifeboat. How they meet the crank checklist, etc. Do they do anything other than name drop on their website, etc?

BrandonReinhart Aug 25, 2011, 4:05 AM
48 points
on: Help Fund Lukeprog at SIAI
Hiring Luke full time would be an excellent choice for the SIAI. I spent time with Luke at mini-camp and can provide some insight.
- Luke is an excellent communicator and agent for the efficient transmission of ideas. More importantly, he has the ability to teach these skills to others. Luke has shown this skill publicly on Less Wrong and also on his blog, with this distilled analysis of Eliezer’s writing “Reading Yudkowsky.”
- Luke is a genuine modern day renaissance man, a true polymath. However, Luke is very self-aware of his limitations and has devoted significant work to finding ways of removing or mitigating those limitations. For example any person with a broad range of academic interests could fall prey to never acquiring useful skills in any of those interest areas. Luke sees this as a serious problem of concern and wants to maximize the efficiency of searching the academic space of ideas. Again, for Luke this is a teachable skill. His session “Productivity and Scholarship” at minicamp outlined techniques for efficient research and reducing akrasia. None of that material would be particularly surprising for a regular reader of Less Wrong—because Luke pioneered critical posts on these subjects. Luke’s suggestions were all implementable and process focused, such as utilizing review articles and Wikipedia to rapidly familiarize one’s self broadly with the jargon of a new discipline before doing deep research.
- Luke is an excellent listener and has a high degree of effectiveness in human interaction. This manifests itself as someone you enjoy speaking to, who seems interested in your views, and then who is able to tell you why you are wrong in a way that makes you feel smarter. (Compare with Eliezer, who will simply turn away when you are wrong. This is fine for Eliezer, but not ideal for SIAI as an organization.) Again, Luke understands how to teach this skill set. It seems likely that Luke would raise the social effectiveness of SIAI as an organization and then also generate positive affectations toward the organization in his dealings with others.
Luke would have a positive influence on the culture of the SIAI, the research of the SIAI, and the public face of the SIAI. Any organization would love to find someone who excels in any one of those dimensions, much less someone who excels in all of them.

Mini-camp was an exhausting challenge to all of the instructors. Luke never once showed that exhaustion, let it dampen his enthusiasm, or let his annoyance be shown (except, perhaps, as a tactical tool to move along a stalled or irrelevant conversation). In many ways he presented the best face of “mini-camp as a consumable product.” That trait (we could call it customer focus or product awareness) is a critical skill the SIAI is lacking.

An example of how Luke has changed me. I was only vaguely aware of the concepts of efficient learning and study. Of course, I know about study habits and putting in time at practice in a certain sense. These usually emphasize practice and time investment (which is important) but underemphasize the value of finding the right things to spend time on.

It was only when I read Luke’s posts, spoke to him, and participated in his sessions at mini-camp that I received a language for thinking about and conducting introspection on the subject of efficient learning. Specifically, I’ve applied his standards and process to my study of guitar and classical music and I now feel I’ve effectively solved the question of where to spend my time and am solely in the realm of doing the actual practice, composition, and research. I’ve advanced more in the past few months of music study than I have ever done in the prior year and a half I played guitar.

In the past month I have actively applied his skill of skimming review material (review books on classical composers) and then used wikipedia to rapidly drill down on confusing component subjects. In the past month, I have actively applied his skill of thinking vicariously about someone else’s victory that represents goals I have to make a hard road seem less like a barrier and more like a negotiable terrain. In the past month, I have applied his skill of considering the merits of multiple competing areas of interest, determined the one with the most impact, and pursued it (knowing I could later scoop up the missing pieces more quickly).

I did all of that with the awareness that Luke was the source of the skills and language that let me do those things.

I am more awesome because of Luke.
What links here?
- lukeprog's comment on Help Fund Lukeprog at SIAI by Eliezer Yudkowsky (Aug 29, 2011, 6:51 PM; 14 points)

BrandonReinhart Jul 24, 2011, 3:57 AM
0 points
in reply to: Duncan’s comment on: The Blue-Minimizing Robot
Is “transform function” a technical term from some discipline I’m unfamiliar with? I interpret your use of that phrase as “operation on some input that results in corresponding output.” I’m having trouble finding meaning in your post that isn’t redefinition.

BrandonReinhart May 10, 2011, 2:48 AM
0 points
in reply to: lukeprog’s comment on: Scholarship: How to Do It Efficiently
Here is another question, regarding the basic methdology of study. When you are reading a scholastic work and you encounter an unfamiliar concept, do you stop to identify the concept or continue but add the concept to a list to be pursued later? In other words, do you queue the concept for later inspection or do you ‘step into’ the concept for immediate inspection?

I expect the answer to be conditional, but knowing what conditions is useful. I find myself sometimes falling down the rabbit hole of chasing chained concepts. Wikipedia makes this mistake easy.

BrandonReinhart May 10, 2011, 2:25 AM
8 points
0
on: Scholarship: How to Do It Efficiently
Here’s a question: does learning to read faster provide a net marginal benefit to the pursuit of scholarship? Are there narrow, focused, and confirmed methods of learning to read faster that yield positive results? This would be beneficial to all, but perhaps moreso to those of us that have full time jobs that are not scholarship.

BrandonReinhart May 8, 2011, 6:13 AM
7 points
on: The 5-Second Level
Grunching. (Responding to the exercise/challenge without reading other people’s responses first.)

Letting go is important. A failure in letting go is to cling to the admission of belief in a thing which you have come not to believe, because the admission involves pain. An example of this failure: I suggest a solution to a pressing design problem. Through conversation, it becomes apparent to me that my suggested solution is unworkable or has undesirable side effects. I realize the suggestion is a failure, but defend it to protect my identity as an authority on the subject and to avoid embarrassment.

An example of success: I stop myself, admit that I have changed my mind, that the idea was in error, and then relinquish the belief.

A 5-second-level description:
- I notice that my actual belief state and my professed belief state do not match. This is a trigger that signals that further conscious analysis is needed. What I believe (the suggestion will have undesirable side effects) and what I desire to profess (the suggestion is good) are in conflict.
- I notice that I feel impending embarrassment or similar types of social pain. This is also a trigger. The feeling that a particular action may be painful is going to influence me to act in a way to avoid the pain. I may continue to defend a bad idea if I’m worried about pain from retreat.
- Noticing these states triggers a feeling of caution or revulsion: I may act in a way opposed to what I believe merely to defend my ego and identity.
- I take a moment to evaluate my internal belief state and what I desire to profess. I actively override my subconscious desire to evade pain with statements that follow from my actual internal belief. I say “I’m sorry. I appear to be wrong.”
An exercise to cause these sub-5-second events:

I proposed a scenario to my wife wherein she was leading an important scientific project. She was known among her team as being an intelligent leader and her team members looked up to her with admiration. A problem on the project was presented: without a solution the project could not move forward. I told my wife that she had had a customary flash of insight and began detailing the solution. A plan to resolve the problem and moving the project forward.

Then, I told her that a young member of her team revealed new data about the problem. Her solution wouldn’t work. Even worse, the young team member looked smug about the fact she had outsmarted the project lead. Then I asked “what do you do?”

My wife said she would admit her solution was wrong and then praise the young team member for finding a flaw. Then she said this was obviously the right thing to do and asked me what the point of posing the scenario was.

I’m not sure my scenario/exercise is very good. The conversation that followed the scenario was more informative for us than the scenario itself.

BrandonReinhart May 8, 2011, 2:49 AM
14 points
in reply to: BrandonReinhart’s comment on: Mini-camp on Rationality, Awesomeness, and Existential Risk (May 28 through June 4, 2011)
I donated $275 to the SIAI via the Facebook page. Given the flight prices on Orbitz, this should cover somebody. Maybe not an east coaster or someone overseas.

Pledge fulfilled!

Also: I will be attending mini-camp and have also gotten my own ticket.

BrandonReinhart May 5, 2011, 4:34 AM
1 point
in reply to: wedrifid’s comment on: SIAI—An Examination
Yes. 40 per week.

BrandonReinhart May 4, 2011, 11:37 PM
18 points
in reply to: jsalvatier’s comment on: SIAI—An Examination
I would be willing to do this work, but I need some “me” time first. The SIAI post took a bunch of spare time and I’m behind on my guitar practice. So let me relax a bit and then I’ll see what I can find. I’m a member of Alcor and John is a member of CI and we’ve already noted some differences so maybe we can split up that work.

BrandonReinhart May 4, 2011, 11:34 PM
2 points
in reply to: jsalvatier’s comment on: SIAI—An Examination
He is full time. According to the filings he reports 40 hours of work for the SIAI. (Form 990 2009, Part VII, Section A—Page 7).

BrandonReinhart May 4, 2011, 4:48 PM
13 points
in reply to: jsalvatier’s comment on: SIAI—An Examination
“Michael Vassar’s Persistent Problems Group idea does need funding, though it may or may not operate under the SIAI umbrella.”

It sounds like they have a similar concern.

BrandonReinhart May 3, 2011, 8:05 PM
2 points
in reply to: jsalvatier’s comment on: SIAI—An Examination
I agree, this doesn’t deserve to be downvoted.

It should be possible for the SIAI to build security measures while also providing some transparency into the nature of that security in a way that doesn’t also compromise it. I would bet that Eliezer has thought about this, or at least thought about the fact that he needs to think about it in more detail. This would be something to look into in a deeper examination of SIAI plans.

BrandonReinhart May 2, 2011, 9:26 PM
4 points
in reply to: timtyler’s comment on: SIAI—An Examination
At this point an admin should undelete the original SIAI Fundraising discussion post. I can’t seem to do it myself. I can update it with a pointer to this post.

BrandonReinhart May 2, 2011, 9:24 PM
6 points
in reply to: Eliezer Yudkowsky’s comment on: SIAI—An Examination
Thanks, I added a note to the text regarding this.

BrandonReinhart May 2, 2011, 4:45 PM
6 points
in reply to: lukeprog’s comment on: SIAI—An Examination
Yeah, I’ll update it when the 2010 documents become available.