atlas

• atlas 27 Mar 2021 13:50 UTC

  3 points

  on: “In­fra-Bayesi­anism with Vanessa Kosoy” – Watch/​Dis­cuss Party

  It would be great if you could post a google calendar link (maybe for the next event). That would make it a lot easier to figure time zone issues (I almost messed up due to our switch to summer time on March 28).

• atlas 24 Mar 2021 14:58 UTC

  1 point

  on: Covid 3/​18: An Ex­pected Quan­tity of Blood Clots

  Regarding the suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine: a crucial point I haven’t seen mentioned is that the suspension is temporary: the AstraZeneca vaccinations were only suspended for four days. This is mentioned in the german FAQ that you linked (though presumably it was updated since you posted). In particular, EMA (the European Medicines Agency) recommended that vaccination be resumed on March 18, and the German Bund decided on the same day to resume vaccination on March 19th.

  Also, not all EU countries halted vaccinations; my home country Austria for example continued using AstraZeneca.

• atlas 23 Nov 2020 16:55 UTC

  3 points

  in reply to: Rohin Shah’s comment on: Matt Botv­inick on the spon­ta­neous emer­gence of learn­ing algorithms

  It might well be that 1) people who already know RL shouldn’t be much surprised by this result and 2) people who don’t know much RL are justified in updating on this info (towards mesa-optimizers arising more easily).
  
  This would be the case if RL intuition correctly implies that proto-mesa-optimizers (like the one in the paper) arise naturally, and that intuition wasn’t widely shared outside of RL. Not sure if this is actually the way things are, but it seems plausible to me.

• atlas 31 Oct 2020 22:21 UTC

  1 point

  in reply to: danohu’s comment on: How can I rec­on­cile these COVID test false-nega­tive num­bers?

  Ah, gotcha, that makes more sense. And thanks for the awesome antigen test table you linked there!

• atlas 28 Oct 2020 13:36 UTC

  2 points

  on: How can I rec­on­cile these COVID test false-nega­tive num­bers?

  Yeah, this has been confusing me as well. There’s an antigen test that Roche claims has 96.52% sensitivity (so <4% false negatives), which seems both surprisingly high (since even PCR tests seem to have far lower sensitivity, as per the study you linked) and suspiciously precise.

• atlas 25 Oct 2020 17:25 UTC

  5 points

  on: Sun­day Oc­to­ber 25, 12:00PM (PT) — Scott Garrabrant on “Carte­sian Frames”

  Will the talk be recorded?

• atlas 8 Jan 2019 11:13 UTC

  1 point

  on: Refram­ing Su­per­in­tel­li­gence: Com­pre­hen­sive AI Ser­vices as Gen­eral Intelligence

  You might argue that each individual service must be dangerous, since it is superintelligent at its particular task. However, since the service is optimizing for some bounded task, it is not going to run a long-term planning process [...]

  Does this assume that we’ll be able to build generally intelligent systems (e.g. the service-creating-service) that optimize for a bounded task?

• atlas 13 Dec 2018 14:35 UTC

  1 point

  on: AI Risk and Op­por­tu­nity: Hu­man­ity’s Efforts So Far

  Is there a more recent writeup on the history of AI safety anywhere?