Agrippa Kellum

• Agrippa Kellum 16 Jan 2020 18:32 UTC

  1 point

  in reply to: migueltorrescosta’s comment on: A method for fair bar­gain­ing over odds in 2 player bets!

  Good point.

• Agrippa Kellum 16 Jan 2020 18:31 UTC

  1 point

  in reply to: Dagon’s comment on: A method for fair bar­gain­ing over odds in 2 player bets!

  By $2 bet at 66% odds, I mean that the Yes position costs $2*66% and the No position costs $2*34%.

  You’re right that “max wager” is meant to be maximum loss. I think you’re picking up on the fact that I made a mistake in calculating loss for each player. I was calculating the potential loss for “$2 bet at 66%” as 2 dollars for both players, but that’s obviously wrong, and no reason afaik that the players should have the same maximum loss. Thanks for the observation.

  
  

  I don’t understand your observation about the incentive to overstate.

  Let’s say A gives event E 60% odds and B gives E 90% odds. For a bet at even odds:

  EV_A(YES) = .4 * -.5 + .6 * .5 = .1

  EV_A(NO) = .6 * -.5 + .4 * .5 = -.1

  From A’s perspective the no position on the ⁵⁰⁄₅₀ bet (or any bet where the no position costs more than 40 cents on the dollar) is negative EV. So if A submitted 0% odds, they’d be forcing themselves to take a lot of negative EV bets.

• Agrippa Kellum 12 Jan 2020 17:28 UTC

  1 point

  in reply to: Bucky’s comment on: A method for fair bar­gain­ing over odds in 2 player bets!

  I like your summary of the method. Good point as well. Perhaps you would want a norm that players don’t discuss their maximum bets before entering them.

  I’m not familiar with the Kelly Criterion so I’ll check that out.

A method for fair bar­gain­ing over odds in 2 player bets!