no 2. is much more important than academic ML researchers which is the majority of the surveys done. When someone delivers a product and is the only one building it and they tells you X, you should belive X unless there is a super strong argument for the contrary and there just isn’t.
arisAlexis
Karma: 97
I am kind of buffled about why this effort would go to be 0 votes or even downvoted? Is the message “the world needs to know or we should discuss about it” wrong or the styling of the document?
good point. I do not personally think that knowing that there is a possibility you will die without you able to do anything to reverse course adds any value unless you mean worldwide social revolt against all nations to stop AI labs?
but how do we get this message accross ? it can reinforce the point of my article that not enough is being done, only in obscure LW forums.
To know or not to know
but you are comparing epochs before and after Turing test passed. Isnt’ that relevant? The Turing test unanimously was/is an inflection point and arguably most experts think we have already passed it in 2023.
why would something that you admit that is temporary (for now) matter in an exponential curve? It’s like saying it’s ok to go out for drinks on March 5 2020. Ok sure but 10 days after it wasn’t. The argument must stand for a very long period of time or it’s better not said. And that is the best argument for why we should be cautious, because a) we don’t know for sure and b) things change extremely fast.
Frida van Lisa, a short story about adversarial AI attacks on humans
isn’t German very easy to learn for Dutch people? most I met became quite fluent very fast due to similarities
I do agree and I admire you because you learned very different languages which is more difficult. I kept the germanic-latin tree of languages.
Exaggerated ofc, not sure how to write the pronunciation. Word s like graag (gladly) can be written in English like “hraah” for example. Or krachtig (strong) could be krahtih. Lots of repetition of these sounds.
Sure thing you can contact me. In Greek we use several Spanish words in their original form and I was wondering was that because we had many shipping ties with Spain and was it the marineros that brought them? Word s like timón, barca, galleta etc.
I actually find my latín american Friends easier to understand, they do use some unknown words but speak muchuch slower especially vs the Andalusians
Very interesting. I suspect the effect would be much greater for Mediterranean languages because Esperanto itself is latin based.
Yes I didn’t even know the difference :) I thought tap is only for pub beer ! Totally disconnected from the exams where you only dealt with essays
How to be an amateur polyglot
I think the fact that we have extinguished species is a binary outcome that supports my argument. Why would it be a count of how many? The fact alone says that we can be exterminated.
I am really cautious of saying that there are only 2 things I am not doing and I got a weird feeling that I ticked most the boxes. Has anybody had this feeling? (OK I don’t use pens and I don’t have a consistent mentor).
can you explain why sub is the most likely since humans have made exticts thousands of animal species? not semi-extinct. We made them 100% extinct.
I don’t want to be nihilistic about your article but I stopped reading at the first paragraph because I disagree (along with others) on the most important thing: it doesn’t matter if risk can’t be proved. Since it’s something unknown and the risk is unknown and the risk includes possible annihilation because of the prior of intelligence in nature annihilating other species then → the opposite needs to be proven. Safety. So any argument about risk arguments being wrong is an error in itself.
great article. I hope you realize your startup research/idea. One comment, I think the salaries derail the whole budget plan, afaik from startup world I have been involved, founders make big sacrifices to get their thing going in return for a big equity in the startup they believe someday will become a unicorn.
I think having a huge p(doom) vs a much smaller one would change this article substantially. If you have 20-30 or 50% doom you can still be positive. In all other cases it sounds like a terminal illness. But since the number is subjective living your life like you know you are right is certainly wrong. So I take most of your article and apply it in my daily life and the closest to this is being a stoic but by any means I don’t believe that it would take a miracle for our civilization to survive. It’s more than that and it’s important.