Ape in the coat

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets Are Mediocre

Prob­a­bil­ity The­ory Fun­da­men­tals 102: Ter­ri­tory that Prob­a­bil­ity is in the Map of

Prob­a­bil­ity The­ory Fun­da­men­tals 102: Source of the Sam­ple Space

Zom­bies! Sub­stance Dual­ist Zom­bies?

[Question] What’s the Deal with Log­i­cal Uncer­tainty?

Dooms­day Ar­gu­ment and the False Dilemma of An­thropic Reasoning

Se­man­tic Disagree­ment of Sleep­ing Beauty Problem

[Question] Should you re­fuse this bet in Tech­ni­color Sleep­ing Beauty?

Beauty and the Bets

The Solu­tion to Sleep­ing Beauty

Les­sons from Failed At­tempts to Model Sleep­ing Beauty Problem

Why Two Valid An­swers Ap­proach is not Enough for Sleep­ing Beauty

[Question] Has any­one ac­tu­ally changed their mind re­gard­ing Sleep­ing Beauty prob­lem?

Another Non-An­thropic Para­dox: The Un­sur­pris­ing Rare­ness of Rare Events

An­throp­i­cal Para­doxes are Para­doxes of Prob­a­bil­ity Theory

An­trop­i­cal Prob­a­bil­ities Are Fully Ex­plained by Differ­ence in Pos­si­ble Outcomes

Con­ser­va­tion of Ex­pected Ev­i­dence and Ran­dom Sam­pling in Anthropics

An­throp­i­cal Motte and Bailey in two ver­sions of Sleep­ing Beauty

[Question] Is Adam Elga’s proof for thirdism in Sleep­ing Beauty still con­sid­ered to be sound?

The world where LLMs are possible