Alexei_Turchin

Karma: 8

Alexei_Turchin 1 Mar 2009 23:06 UTC
1 point
on: Markets are Anti-Inductive
This resoning works good if I assume that I have average IQ—and so my predictions are averege and so I should not try to predict the market. But most people think that they are smarter then most people. So do the traders.

Smartest traders can first notice trends in psevdorandom enviroment. But most traders mistakenly think that they are smartest.

Alexei_Turchin 24 Jan 2009 20:04 UTC
0 points
on: Investing for the Long Slump
Put attention on phisical gold. If finansial system would collapse, its price could grew several times (and I read somewhere that on current price gold is covering only 1 per cent of fiat monney—so it could grow 100 times if it will replace paper monney). And phisacal gold don’t depend of any finansial institutions (except nationalisation in style of Roosevelt).

Also Long Slump would lead to wars, and supertechnologies will continue to develop quikly in military research hubs. So you could join military research institution and get good finansing until 2040.During GD was made key innovation which leads to creation of nuclear bomb − 1932 was opened neutron and so on.

Also you could say that only FAI could resolve complexty crisis, which is true—and get long term funding.

Alexei_Turchin 29 Nov 2008 14:37 UTC
0 points
on: Chaotic Inversion
Several days ago I have night dream there I met someone who said to me: “you even don″t realize what is your main problem. It is haos”. He ment that all that I did during a day or full life was haotic, but not planned.

But I do the same—then I am tired I browes random sites, untill unpredictable moment then I feel new interest to work. Maybe it is working strategy after all?

Alexei_Turchin 10 Nov 2008 22:49 UTC
1 point
on: Lawful Uncertainty
“For example, subjects who were paid a nickel for each correct prediction over a thousand trials… predicted [the more common event] 76% of the time.”

How it could be? Psychic power?

Alexei_Turchin 9 Oct 2008 11:30 UTC
0 points
on: Beyond the Reach of God
The main question here is -

Can finite state machine have qualia?

Because suffering is qualia. If it is not, it does″t matter. It is easy to write a programm that print “i am suffering” if you press a button.

So, God cannot influence on result of work of final automata. But He can give it qualia, or switch qualia off for it—and nobody would ever mention it.

So, existing of final automat Universe, don″t prove absense of God, because God could change qualia without changing result of work of the automat.

Alexei_Turchin 27 Sep 2008 21:04 UTC
0 points
on: My Naturalistic Awakening
Antropic principle is also optimization process, different from evolution and human mind.

Also collective unconcsiones mind of human population which has created for example languages—is also some kind of optimization process.

Also we shoud mention science.

So in fact we live inside many mind-like processes—and often even do not mention it.

Alexei_Turchin 21 Sep 2008 18:09 UTC
0 points
on: My Childhood Death Spiral
Difference between “expirience” and “intelligence” is the difference between aproahes of Google and SIAI.

First gives instant results and grow lineary. Second will give no result until some treshold will be passed.

Expirience could gave better prediction in complex situation then pure inteligence without knowleghe

Alexei_Turchin 21 Sep 2008 17:45 UTC
0 points
on: How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many?
But the destruction of the earth in case of creation of blackhole or a stranglet will not be instantaneous, like on YouTube movie.

BH will grow slowly, but exponentialy. By some assumptions it could take 27 years to eat the earth. So we will have time to understand our mistake and to suffer from it. The main hurting thing of BH will be its energy realize. And if BH is in the cenre of the earth , this energy will go out as violent volcanic eruptions.

Because of exponential grouth of BH the bigest part of energey will be realized in the last years of its existence.

It means that in fisrt years we could not even mention that BH is created.

It measns that probably BH is already created on previus collider RHIC, but we still do not see its manifestations.

So, this antropic principlle would work only in case of vacuum transition.

But we should not afraid it because in Multiverse we will always survive in some worlds.

And continues failtures of LHC will prove that this way of immortality is valid and we should not wary about existential risks at all.

Alexei_Turchin 29 Jan 2008 12:36 UTC
−1 points
on: The Amazing Virgin Pregnancy
I think people would find it more apropriate if you tell about any your own bias that you have until e.g. 15 years old, and then debiased yourself, and tell people around you that they are wrong and that they believe in stupid thing.

Alexei_Turchin 20 Jan 2008 16:03 UTC
7 points
on: 9/26 is Petrov Day
It is interesting to mention that Petrov was not simple and ordinary officier in the bunker.

He was an author of instructions for red button. He took this duty that day occasionaly, just ‘for rest’. And his own instruction prescribed him to start the war. But being an author of the instruction, he understood that it is wrong. If any other were on his place his instruction will kill all of us.