Does this track history of predictions so that an update after new information can lead to a new aggregate brier score or some other scoring system can be applied? Otherwise the system doesn’t encourage many small updates which at least the GJP suggests is ideal for accuracy in this kind of question.
There have been 3 US presidents where impeachment procedures have taken place against a president. That’s ~7% of US presidents. I think that sets a good prior.
Note that PredictIt currently thinks there’s a 7% chance Trump will be impeached within the first 100 days.
That seems high to me for the first 100 days, since Republicans control both the house and the Senate. However, things could change at the midterm elections in 2018.
Overall I’m going with a 1 in 6 chance during the first term.
Trump becomes an albatross on the GOP, to the degree that they lose
the House in 2018 despite their geographic advantage (the Democrats
would basically have to win the House popular vote by 6-8 points in
order to get a majority of seats, as per
FiveThirtyEight).
In this case, the Democrat-controlled House would be quite likely to
initiate impeachment proceedings, both because Trump is a worse
President than Pence would be, and because it would put GOP Senators
in a serious bind.
The GOP preemptively impeaches Trump, both to
prevent a bad election cycle for them and because they would prefer
Pence as President.
These aren’t that unlikely over the next four years, though it won’t happen in the first 100 days (barring some bigger bombshell or some real civic virtue from the GOP House leadership).
Does this track history of predictions so that an update after new information can lead to a new aggregate brier score or some other scoring system can be applied? Otherwise the system doesn’t encourage many small updates which at least the GJP suggests is ideal for accuracy in this kind of question.
Not currently.
There have been 3 US presidents where impeachment procedures have taken place against a president. That’s ~7% of US presidents. I think that sets a good prior.
Note that PredictIt currently thinks there’s a 7% chance Trump will be impeached within the first 100 days.
That seems high to me for the first 100 days, since Republicans control both the house and the Senate. However, things could change at the midterm elections in 2018.
Overall I’m going with a 1 in 6 chance during the first term.
Two ways impeachment could happen:
Trump becomes an albatross on the GOP, to the degree that they lose the House in 2018 despite their geographic advantage (the Democrats would basically have to win the House popular vote by 6-8 points in order to get a majority of seats, as per FiveThirtyEight). In this case, the Democrat-controlled House would be quite likely to initiate impeachment proceedings, both because Trump is a worse President than Pence would be, and because it would put GOP Senators in a serious bind.
The GOP preemptively impeaches Trump, both to prevent a bad election cycle for them and because they would prefer Pence as President.
These aren’t that unlikely over the next four years, though it won’t happen in the first 100 days (barring some bigger bombshell or some real civic virtue from the GOP House leadership).
See also: http://www.metaculus.com/questions/377/will-donald-trump-be-the-president-of-the-united-states-in-2018/.