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Underconfidence

TagLast edit: Oct 2, 2020, 12:22 AM by Ruby

Underconfidence is the state of being more uncertain than is justified, given your priors and the evidence you are aware of.

Blog posts

See also

The Sin of Underconfidence

Eliezer YudkowskyApr 20, 2009, 6:30 AM
105 points
187 comments6 min readLW link

Say Wrong Things

Gordon Seidoh WorleyMay 24, 2019, 10:11 PM
115 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

Ir­ra­tional Modesty

Tomás B.Jun 20, 2021, 7:38 PM
142 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

A note about cal­ibra­tion of confidence

jbayJan 4, 2016, 6:57 AM
18 points
35 comments8 min readLW link

Against Modest Epistemology

Eliezer YudkowskyNov 14, 2017, 8:40 PM
71 points
48 comments15 min readLW link

The Im­por­tance of Self-Doubt

multifoliateroseAug 19, 2010, 10:47 PM
28 points
746 comments10 min readLW link

Against Shoot­ing Your­self in the Foot

Eliezer YudkowskyNov 16, 2017, 8:13 PM
47 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

How con­fi­dent should we be?

[deleted]Jan 1, 2012, 3:57 PM
12 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

The Limits of In­tel­li­gence and Me: Do­main Expertise

ChrisHallquistDec 7, 2013, 8:23 AM
45 points
79 comments5 min readLW link

Si­mul­ta­neous Over­con­fi­dence and Underconfidence

abramdemskiJun 3, 2015, 9:04 PM
37 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

Sta­tus Reg­u­la­tion and Anx­ious Underconfidence

Eliezer YudkowskyNov 16, 2017, 7:35 PM
83 points
18 comments21 min readLW link

A Sketch of Good Communication

Ben PaceMar 31, 2018, 10:48 PM
203 points
35 comments3 min readLW link1 review

Think­ing with­out pri­ors?

Q HomeAug 2, 2022, 9:17 AM
7 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

The un­der­ap­pre­ci­ated value of origi­nal think­ing be­low the frontier

EmrikOct 2, 2021, 4:03 PM
36 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Buf­falo buf­falo Buf­falo buf­falo buf­falo buf­falo Buf­falo buf­falo.

silentbobOct 17, 2023, 11:36 AM
16 points
5 comments2 min readLW link
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