Overconfidence

Overconfidence is the state of being more certain than is justified, given your priors and the evidence available.

Blog posts

• Moral Overconfidence by Robin Hanson

• When Error is High, Simplify by Robin Hanson

• Academic Overconfidence by Robin Hanson

• Bosses Prefer Overconfident Managers by Robin Hanson

• Convenient Overconfidence by Robin Hanson

• Overconfidence Explained by Robin Hanson

• On Overconfidence by Scott Alexander

See also

• Underconfidence

• Status, Modesty

• Dangerous knowledge