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Metaculus

TagLast edit: Jul 4, 2023, 10:06 PM by duck_master

This tag is for posts related to Metaculus, a popular and well-established forecasting website.

Metaculus (metaculus.com) hosts very serious questions, and focuses on science & technology (especially artificial intelligence), geopolitics, effective altruism, and the far future. Forecasting on Metaculus is absolute and forecasters provide specific probabilities or probability distributions.

See also:

Open Sourc­ing Metaculus

ChristianWilliamsJul 2, 2024, 10:30 PM
44 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

The State of Metaculus

ChristianWilliamsFeb 5, 2025, 7:17 PM
21 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

AXRP Epi­sode 38.7 - An­thony Aguirre on the Fu­ture of Life Institute

DanielFilanFeb 9, 2025, 1:10 AM
10 points
0 comments12 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus In­tro­duces Mul­ti­ple Choice Questions

ChristianWilliamsDec 20, 2023, 7:00 PM
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Prob­a­bil­ity of AI-Caused Disaster

Alvin ÅnestrandFeb 12, 2025, 7:40 PM
2 points
2 comments10 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)

Me­tac­u­lus’s New Side­bar Helps You Find Fore­casts Faster

ChristianWilliamsNov 8, 2023, 8:56 PM
15 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Me­tac­u­lus is seek­ing An­a­lyt­i­cal Sto­ry­tel­lers to write es­says for­tified with testable predictions

ChristianWilliamsOct 6, 2021, 4:44 AM
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus is seek­ing Soft­ware Engineers

dschwarzNov 5, 2022, 12:42 AM
18 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(apply.workable.com)

Me­tac­u­lus Year in Re­view: 2022

ChristianWilliamsJan 6, 2023, 1:23 AM
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus Launches the ‘Fore­cast­ing Our World In Data’ Pro­ject to Probe the Long-Term Future

ChristianWilliamsOct 14, 2022, 5:00 PM
15 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus launches con­test for es­says with quan­ti­ta­tive pre­dic­tions about AI

Feb 8, 2022, 4:07 PM
25 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Me­tac­u­lus is build­ing a team ded­i­cated to AI forecasting

ChristianWilliamsOct 18, 2022, 4:08 PM
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus An­nounces The Million Pre­dic­tions Hackathon

ChristianWilliamsNov 10, 2022, 8:00 PM
7 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus Pre­dic­tion Party—Los An­ge­les LW/​ACX Meetup #194 (Wed­nes­day, July 20th)

koreindianJul 18, 2022, 8:32 PM
2 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus Event: Fore­cast Fri­day, April 28th at 12pm ET — Speed Fore­cast­ing Ses­sion!

ChristianWilliamsApr 27, 2023, 7:50 PM
0 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus and medians

rossryAug 6, 2022, 3:34 AM
18 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus is seek­ing ex­pe­rienced lead­ers, re­searchers & op­er­a­tors for high-im­pact roles

ChristianWilliamsJul 10, 2022, 2:27 PM
9 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(apply.workable.com)

Me­tac­u­lus Launches Chi­nese AI Chips Tour­na­ment, Sup­port­ing In­sti­tute for AI Policy and Strat­egy Research

ChristianWilliamsDec 6, 2023, 11:26 AM
10 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Fore­cast­ing for Policy (FORPOL) - Main take­aways, prac­ti­cal learn­ings & report

janklenhaSep 18, 2023, 5:44 PM
2 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Me­tac­u­lus Q4 AI Bench­mark­ing: Bots Are Clos­ing The Gap

Feb 19, 2025, 10:42 PM
13 points
0 comments13 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Con­fer­ence Re­port: Thresh­old 2030 - Model­ing AI Eco­nomic Futures

Feb 24, 2025, 6:56 PM
51 points
0 comments10 min readLW link
(www.convergenceanalysis.org)

Fore­cast­ing AGI: In­sights from Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets and Metaculus

Alvin ÅnestrandFeb 4, 2025, 1:03 PM
13 points
0 comments4 min readLW link
(forecastingaifutures.substack.com)
No comments.