All true, but bear in mind I’m not suggesting you should limit yourself to the space of mainstream arguments, or for that matter of arguments spontaneously arriving at you. I think it’s totally fine and doesn’t substantially risk the overfitting I’m warning against if you go a bit out of the mainstream. What I do think risks overfitting is coming up with the argument yourself, or else unearthing obscure arguments some random person posted on a blog and no one has devoted any real attention to. The failure mode I’m warning against is basically this: if you find yourself convinced of a position solely (or mostly) for reasons you think very few people are even aware of, you’re very likely wrong.
All true, but bear in mind I’m not suggesting you should limit yourself to the space of mainstream arguments, or for that matter of arguments spontaneously arriving at you. I think it’s totally fine and doesn’t substantially risk the overfitting I’m warning against if you go a bit out of the mainstream. What I do think risks overfitting is coming up with the argument yourself, or else unearthing obscure arguments some random person posted on a blog and no one has devoted any real attention to. The failure mode I’m warning against is basically this: if you find yourself convinced of a position solely (or mostly) for reasons you think very few people are even aware of, you’re very likely wrong.