I never took this idea literally—it’s a thought experiment that helps you see whether your beliefs about your beliefs are consistent. If you have a preference for one side or the other of a wager, that implies that your beliefs about the resolution are not at the line you’re consciously considering.
There are LOTS of reasons not to actually make or accept a wager, mostly about the cost of tracking/collecting, and about the difference between the wager outcomes and the nominal description of the wager.
I never took this idea literally—it’s a thought experiment that helps you see whether your beliefs about your beliefs are consistent. If you have a preference for one side or the other of a wager, that implies that your beliefs about the resolution are not at the line you’re consciously considering.
There are LOTS of reasons not to actually make or accept a wager, mostly about the cost of tracking/collecting, and about the difference between the wager outcomes and the nominal description of the wager.