“the future will have lots of things that humans like”.
That’s not the correct conclusion to draw from the graph. The correct conclusion is “the future will have lots of things that are designed or made on purpose”, which includes paperclippy futures with solar-system-sized machines that make paperclips. There’s no reason in that graph for humans to be part of the picture, and there is a reason for them not to be—limited human intelligence means that humans will soon be replaced with things that are better at making stuff.
Actually the correct conclusion to draw from the graph is that if things continue as they have been, then something utterly unpredictable happens at 2047 because the model breaks there and predicts imaginary numbers for future gross world product.
The graph is not at all an argument for “business as usual”! Bob should be expecting something completely unprecedented to happen in less than 30 years.
I wonder if it will end up like Moore’s law; keeps going despite seeming absurd until it hits a physical limit. For Moore’s law that was “it’s scaled down until you get atom-thick components and then it stops” and for GWP it would be “scales up until we max out the value of the light cone and then it only continues to scale like a sphere expanding at the speed of light”.
That’s not the correct conclusion to draw from the graph. The correct conclusion is “the future will have lots of things that are designed or made on purpose”, which includes paperclippy futures with solar-system-sized machines that make paperclips. There’s no reason in that graph for humans to be part of the picture, and there is a reason for them not to be—limited human intelligence means that humans will soon be replaced with things that are better at making stuff.
Actually the correct conclusion to draw from the graph is that if things continue as they have been, then something utterly unpredictable happens at 2047 because the model breaks there and predicts imaginary numbers for future gross world product.
The graph is not at all an argument for “business as usual”! Bob should be expecting something completely unprecedented to happen in less than 30 years.
I wonder if it will end up like Moore’s law; keeps going despite seeming absurd until it hits a physical limit. For Moore’s law that was “it’s scaled down until you get atom-thick components and then it stops” and for GWP it would be “scales up until we max out the value of the light cone and then it only continues to scale like a sphere expanding at the speed of light”.