There are two counter-arguments to the Gods of Straight Lines that I know of.
One is the Doomsday Argument, which is a rabbit hole I’d rather not discuss right now.
The other is that the Singularity was canceled in 1960. In general, progress follows S-curves, not exponential curves, and that S-curves look exponential until they level off. We can assume that Moore’s Law will end eventually, even though something like Moore’s Law still holds today. Certainly CPU clock speed has leveled off, and single-threaded performance (for algorithms that aren’t or can’t be parallelized) has been improving much more slowly than in the past.
There are two counter-arguments to the Gods of Straight Lines that I know of.
One is the Doomsday Argument, which is a rabbit hole I’d rather not discuss right now.
The other is that the Singularity was canceled in 1960. In general, progress follows S-curves, not exponential curves, and that S-curves look exponential until they level off. We can assume that Moore’s Law will end eventually, even though something like Moore’s Law still holds today. Certainly CPU clock speed has leveled off, and single-threaded performance (for algorithms that aren’t or can’t be parallelized) has been improving much more slowly than in the past.