I suspect that many researchers both consider is probably hopeless, but still worth working on given their estimates of how possible it is, how likely unaligned AI is, and how bad/good unaligned/aligned AI would be. A 90% chance of being hopeless is worth it for a 10% chance of probably saving the world. (Note that this is not Pascal’s Wager since the probability is not infinitesimal.)
This comment got me to change the wording of the question slightly. “so many” was changed to “most”.
You answered the question in good faith, which I’m thankful for, but I don’t feel your answer engaged with the content of the post satisfactorily. I was asking about the set of researchers who think alignment, at least in principle, is probably not hopeless, who I suspect to be the majority. If I failed to communicate that, I’d definitely appreciate if you could give me advice on how to make my question more clear.
Nevertheless I do agree with everything you’re saying, though we may be thinking of different things here when we use the word “many”.
I suspect that many researchers both consider is probably hopeless, but still worth working on given their estimates of how possible it is, how likely unaligned AI is, and how bad/good unaligned/aligned AI would be. A 90% chance of being hopeless is worth it for a 10% chance of probably saving the world. (Note that this is not Pascal’s Wager since the probability is not infinitesimal.)
This comment got me to change the wording of the question slightly. “so many” was changed to “most”.
You answered the question in good faith, which I’m thankful for, but I don’t feel your answer engaged with the content of the post satisfactorily. I was asking about the set of researchers who think alignment, at least in principle, is probably not hopeless, who I suspect to be the majority. If I failed to communicate that, I’d definitely appreciate if you could give me advice on how to make my question more clear.
Nevertheless I do agree with everything you’re saying, though we may be thinking of different things here when we use the word “many”.