I agree, and think work in the area is valuable, but would still argue that unless we expect a correct and coherent answer, any single approach is going to be less effective than an average of (contradictory, somewhat unclear) different models.
As an analogue, I think that effort into improving individual prediction accuracy and calibration is valuable, but for most estimation questions, I’d bet on an average of 50 untrained idiots over any single superforecaster.
I agree, and think work in the area is valuable, but would still argue that unless we expect a correct and coherent answer, any single approach is going to be less effective than an average of (contradictory, somewhat unclear) different models.
As an analogue, I think that effort into improving individual prediction accuracy and calibration is valuable, but for most estimation questions, I’d bet on an average of 50 untrained idiots over any single superforecaster.