>Much higher than the anthrax attacks you mention. People in biosecurity think that the tails are more like billions dead or the end of civilization. (I’m not sure if I believe them, the public object level cases for this don’t seem that amazing due to info-hazard concerns.)
As a biologist who has thought about these kinds of things (and participated in a forecasting group about them), I agree. (And there are very good reasons for not making the object-level cases public!)
>Much higher than the anthrax attacks you mention. People in biosecurity think that the tails are more like billions dead or the end of civilization. (I’m not sure if I believe them, the public object level cases for this don’t seem that amazing due to info-hazard concerns.)
As a biologist who has thought about these kinds of things (and participated in a forecasting group about them), I agree. (And there are very good reasons for not making the object-level cases public!)