I’m not sil ver, but as a casual coronavirus watcher (in part because I live significantly closer to affected areas than most), my instinctive doubts are mostly 1 and 3. What numbers are you using for those to base the claim “ankifying this is probably among the most valuable things you could ever use it for.”?
I don’t have a long reply to this yet since I didn’t get the chance to look up actual data (as opposed to recommendations) but I’d be interested to
Insofar as a health intervention is ineffective it could be for one of three reasons:
The base rate of the thing it prevents is low
The intervention is not good at preventing the thing
The thing is not that bad even when it does happen
Which is your main sticking point here?
I’m not sil ver, but as a casual coronavirus watcher (in part because I live significantly closer to affected areas than most), my instinctive doubts are mostly 1 and 3. What numbers are you using for those to base the claim “ankifying this is probably among the most valuable things you could ever use it for.”?