“It is unlikely that there’s a 20 dollar bill in the street” doesn’t imply “if you see a 20 dollar bill in the street, it’s probably fake”. Whether it’s fake depends on the relative likelihood of fake and real 20 dollar bills. The relative proportion of failed to successful ideas isn’t anywhere near as favorable as the proportion of fake to real $20 bills.
“It is unlikely that there’s a 20 dollar bill in the street” doesn’t imply “if you see a 20 dollar bill in the street, it’s probably fake”. Whether it’s fake depends on the relative likelihood of fake and real 20 dollar bills. The relative proportion of failed to successful ideas isn’t anywhere near as favorable as the proportion of fake to real $20 bills.