Uhm, I don’t think anybody (even Eliezer) implies 99.9999%. Maybe some people imply 99% but it’s 4 orders of magnitude difference (and 100 times more than the difference between 90% and 99%).
I don’t think there are many people who think 95%+ chance, even among those who are considered to be doomerish.
And I think most LW people are significantly lower despite being rightfully [very] concerned. For example, this Metaculus question (which is of course not LW but the audience intersects quite a bit) is only 13% mean (and 2% median)
The OP here. The post was inspired by this interview by Eliezer:
My impression after watching the interview:
Eliezer thinks that the unaligned AGI, if created, will almost certainly kill us all.
Judging by the despondency he expresses in the interview, he feels that the unaligned AGI is about as deadly as a direct shot right in the head from a large-caliber gun. So, at least 99%.
But I can’t read his mind, so maybe my interpretation is incorrect.
Uhm, I don’t think anybody (even Eliezer) implies 99.9999%. Maybe some people imply 99% but it’s 4 orders of magnitude difference (and 100 times more than the difference between 90% and 99%).
I don’t think there are many people who think 95%+ chance, even among those who are considered to be doomerish.
And I think most LW people are significantly lower despite being rightfully [very] concerned. For example, this Metaculus question (which is of course not LW but the audience intersects quite a bit) is only 13% mean (and 2% median)
The OP here. The post was inspired by this interview by Eliezer:
My impression after watching the interview:
Eliezer thinks that the unaligned AGI, if created, will almost certainly kill us all.
Judging by the despondency he expresses in the interview, he feels that the unaligned AGI is about as deadly as a direct shot right in the head from a large-caliber gun. So, at least 99%.
But I can’t read his mind, so maybe my interpretation is incorrect.
If you switch “community weighting” to “uniform” you see that historically almost everyone has answered 1%.