Growing an organisation such as CFAR isn’t easy. It takes some skill. I don’t know the CFAR people personally but I have no reason to assume that they are up for that task.
I have met them, although in a limited context, and using that information I have estimated if they were to try to expand, they would be somewhat more likely to do so successfully than the typical group that attempts to expand.
I think that my prior is poorly grounded because I have experience with only a few small organizations that tried to expand and failed, and a larger number that tried successfully. However, I didn’t know of any of the successful groups before they grew.
Growing an organisation such as CFAR isn’t easy. It takes some skill. I don’t know the CFAR people personally but I have no reason to assume that they are up for that task.
I have met them, although in a limited context, and using that information I have estimated if they were to try to expand, they would be somewhat more likely to do so successfully than the typical group that attempts to expand.
I think that my prior is poorly grounded because I have experience with only a few small organizations that tried to expand and failed, and a larger number that tried successfully. However, I didn’t know of any of the successful groups before they grew.