I don’t think point and sputter posts like this are very useful. How is this example more surprising than any other quack medicine example? How much understanding does the typical patient have of any medicine? Lots of medicines are controlled doses of poisons.
I think you are mistaken about the lethality. It would be surprising if it “often” killed its users, yet was able to spread. But that’s not true. Yes, it is sold at industrial concentrations, but most people follow the directions and dilute it. The FSA says that, used as directed, it will only cause GI distress (though the FDA suggests that the low blood pressure could be fatal). Users are warned of the effects ahead of time. That probably reassures them that it is working, that they haven’t been scammed with an inactive substance.
What is the death rate? The Seattle case appears to involve 200 users and no fatalities. The woman who died in Vanuatu appears to be the only known death, but I don’t think much is known about the hundred thousand malaria victims in East Africa who took it.
I don’t think this demonstrates human stupidity any more than any other quack medicine example. It does nicely illustrate Poe’s law. That may make it more memorable and convincing.
Added: By “point and sputter” I mean that Eliezer did not provide enough information for me to determine what surprised him about this example and why it would be a useful example to give to others. I think he reached much of his conclusions from false beliefs about how the product is described and how lethal it is, but I don’t know. Certainly, what the impression I took away from his post was false.
I don’t think point and sputter posts like this are very useful
This is intended to be used as an example in other posts. Our current go-to example is religion, which leads to point-and-laugh routines and isn’t very, well, dramatic, is it?
Whether you change beliefs in response to a new case will depend on the nature of the selection or sampling process . If you go through a history of quack medicine, you’d get lots of new case-studies but you might not change your beliefs about typical human epistemic performance at all.
Even if new cases are selected to be examples of human stupidity, they might still be roughly random within that class. So cases that are more extreme than one’s expectation will shift your beliefs. But this might leave your beliefs about the frequency of incidence of human gullibility unchanged. (Maybe I come to think that believers in quack medicine are even more stupid than I previously thought, but not that such believers are any more common).
It’s very hard to judge whether one’s new information is selection-biased in some way. In areas like psychology and political science, it’s not so hard to find academic papers that support either side on a debate. Even if you can’t find that, it could be because of file-drawer effects or because of topic has not been investigated much by academics.
I don’t think point and sputter posts like this are very useful. How is this example more surprising than any other quack medicine example? How much understanding does the typical patient have of any medicine? Lots of medicines are controlled doses of poisons.
I think you are mistaken about the lethality. It would be surprising if it “often” killed its users, yet was able to spread. But that’s not true. Yes, it is sold at industrial concentrations, but most people follow the directions and dilute it. The FSA says that, used as directed, it will only cause GI distress (though the FDA suggests that the low blood pressure could be fatal). Users are warned of the effects ahead of time. That probably reassures them that it is working, that they haven’t been scammed with an inactive substance.
What is the death rate? The Seattle case appears to involve 200 users and no fatalities. The woman who died in Vanuatu appears to be the only known death, but I don’t think much is known about the hundred thousand malaria victims in East Africa who took it.
I don’t think this demonstrates human stupidity any more than any other quack medicine example. It does nicely illustrate Poe’s law. That may make it more memorable and convincing.
Added: By “point and sputter” I mean that Eliezer did not provide enough information for me to determine what surprised him about this example and why it would be a useful example to give to others. I think he reached much of his conclusions from false beliefs about how the product is described and how lethal it is, but I don’t know. Certainly, what the impression I took away from his post was false.
The post clearly states that this is intended to be used as an example in other posts, to reduce the use of religion as an example.
This is intended to be used as an example in other posts. Our current go-to example is religion, which leads to point-and-laugh routines and isn’t very, well, dramatic, is it?
Well, it could have been a comment in the Open Thread. But I don’t think it wouldn’t belong on LW at all.
Whether you change beliefs in response to a new case will depend on the nature of the selection or sampling process . If you go through a history of quack medicine, you’d get lots of new case-studies but you might not change your beliefs about typical human epistemic performance at all.
Even if new cases are selected to be examples of human stupidity, they might still be roughly random within that class. So cases that are more extreme than one’s expectation will shift your beliefs. But this might leave your beliefs about the frequency of incidence of human gullibility unchanged. (Maybe I come to think that believers in quack medicine are even more stupid than I previously thought, but not that such believers are any more common).
It’s very hard to judge whether one’s new information is selection-biased in some way. In areas like psychology and political science, it’s not so hard to find academic papers that support either side on a debate. Even if you can’t find that, it could be because of file-drawer effects or because of topic has not been investigated much by academics.