What would the penalty have to be where you’re indifferent between guessing and not guessing? Obviously, when the penalty is −1 point. You guess two answers, one is correct and the other not, and your expected score is 0.
Caveat: This is only true if you have no idea at all which is correct. If you think there’s a 60% chance you know the right answer, you’re still better off guessing.
Caveat: This is only true if you have no idea at all which is correct. If you think there’s a 60% chance you know the right answer, you’re still better off guessing.
Indeed. As a consequence, once you can narrow the answer down to two or three choices, you’re always better off guessing.