I feel like this is more of a problem with your optimism than with induction. You should really have a hypothesis set that says “humans want me to be fed for some period of time” and the evidence increases your confidence in that, not just some subset of it. After that, you can have additional hypotheses about, for example, their possible motivations, that you could update on based on whatever other data you have (e.g. you’re super-induction-turkey, so you figured out evolution). Or, more trivially, you might notice that sometimes your fellow turkeys disappear and don’t come back (if that happens). You would then predict the future based on all of these hypotheses, not just one linear trend you detected.
I feel like this is more of a problem with your optimism than with induction. You should really have a hypothesis set that says “humans want me to be fed for some period of time” and the evidence increases your confidence in that, not just some subset of it. After that, you can have additional hypotheses about, for example, their possible motivations, that you could update on based on whatever other data you have (e.g. you’re super-induction-turkey, so you figured out evolution). Or, more trivially, you might notice that sometimes your fellow turkeys disappear and don’t come back (if that happens). You would then predict the future based on all of these hypotheses, not just one linear trend you detected.
I’m not sure why, but now I want Super-induction-turkey to be the LW mascot.