rtnew=1.7 is an entirely different case. Suppressing it would require the sort of lockdown that would yield rt=0.6 for the old strain, a number that has never been reached by any US state for any amount of time. I see no way in hell that Americans would agree to a lockdown much stricter than any we’ve had so far, especially after they’ve been promised that the worst is behind them.
As mentioned on Twitter, I don’t buy this. I think we’d get more infections and deaths, but once hospitals are overwhelmed, society’s negative feedback loop will kick in and we’ll get R back close to 1.
I believe that lots of individuals could be a lot more cautious than they already are, and I don’t think people will stand for hospitals being overwhelmed.
As mentioned on Twitter, I don’t buy this. I think we’d get more infections and deaths, but once hospitals are overwhelmed, society’s negative feedback loop will kick in and we’ll get R back close to 1.
I believe that lots of individuals could be a lot more cautious than they already are, and I don’t think people will stand for hospitals being overwhelmed.