There is no internal detail yet, but this is not a mysterious answer.
What I said was basically “there exists a mathematical procedure for this problem that you would get if you went thru a derivation starting with bayes rule.” I don’t know how it works because I have not done the math. Optimality and uniqueness theorems suggest it should be at least as good as a prediction market (because at worst you just pull the bayes structure out of a prediction market), you could probably do much better, tho.
If that is a mysterious answer, the term means very little.
If you want detail, imagine naive bayes over people’s opinions of various proposals. Or something. That’s the 30 seconds of thought version, you could probably do a lot better in 5 minutes.
There is no internal detail yet, but this is not a mysterious answer.
What I said was basically “there exists a mathematical procedure for this problem that you would get if you went thru a derivation starting with bayes rule.” I don’t know how it works because I have not done the math. Optimality and uniqueness theorems suggest it should be at least as good as a prediction market (because at worst you just pull the bayes structure out of a prediction market), you could probably do much better, tho.
If that is a mysterious answer, the term means very little.
If you want detail, imagine naive bayes over people’s opinions of various proposals. Or something. That’s the 30 seconds of thought version, you could probably do a lot better in 5 minutes.
Didn’t have any of that background information, sorry.
You’re right, though, this isn’t a mysterious answer.