For Presumptuous Philosopher: you reject the “prior probability that “I” actually exist.” But this is a perfectly valid Bayesian update. You update on your entire lifetime of observations. If one theory says those observations are one in a billion likely, and another theory says they’re one in a trillion, then you update in favor of the former theory.
I do think the doomsday argument fails, because your observations aren’t any less likely in a doomsday scenario vs not. This is related to the fact that I accept SIA and not SSA.
>It should be noted this counter-argument states the probability of “me” being simulated is a false concept
I actually agree with this, if the assumption is that the simulation is perfect and one can’t tell in principle if they’re in a simulation. Then, I think the question is meaningless. But for purposes of predicting anomalies that one would expect in a simulation and not otherwise, it’s a valid concept.
Dr Evil is complicated because of blackmail concerns.
Re your “takedown” of anthropic arguments:
For Presumptuous Philosopher: you reject the “prior probability that “I” actually exist.” But this is a perfectly valid Bayesian update. You update on your entire lifetime of observations. If one theory says those observations are one in a billion likely, and another theory says they’re one in a trillion, then you update in favor of the former theory.
I do think the doomsday argument fails, because your observations aren’t any less likely in a doomsday scenario vs not. This is related to the fact that I accept SIA and not SSA.
>It should be noted this counter-argument states the probability of “me” being simulated is a false concept
I actually agree with this, if the assumption is that the simulation is perfect and one can’t tell in principle if they’re in a simulation. Then, I think the question is meaningless. But for purposes of predicting anomalies that one would expect in a simulation and not otherwise, it’s a valid concept.
Dr Evil is complicated because of blackmail concerns.