Authoritarians in general and the Chinese in particular would reflexively cover up anything that’s even potentially embarrassing as a matter of course. I can’t call a coverup more likely in a natural origin scenario, but it’s still pretty likely, so this is weak evidence.
I think it’s embarrasing to withold a database that was created to help us fight a pandemic in times of a pandemic. It’s bad for any future Chinese researcher who wants to collaborate with the West if it’s clear that we can’t count of resources that we create together with China to help us in a crisis to actually be available in the crisis. Additionally, why did the coverup start in September 2019?
“Patient zero” is the earliest that could be identified, not necessarily the first to get it.
Yes, but if you take 1 billion Chinese and maybe 200 employees of the WIV what are the odds that “patient zero” is from the WIV?
5,000,000 to 1.
Unless you can establish than China was behind this, and put in more effort than would be expected as a matter of course, I don’t think this is evidence at all of anything other than normal American political bickering.
No, it was American/International supression because of NIH funding gain of function involving the WIV in violation of the ban in 2015 and not putting it through the safety review process that was instituted in 2017.
Why? And does this have anything to do with whether it was a leak or not? These are primarily American companies that are already censored in China.
It’s about how important it was for Farrar on the 2nd of February to get through to Tedros and have Tedros decide while talking about ZeroHedge and Tedros announcing the next day that he’s cooperating with Google/Twitter to fight “misinformation” and ZeroHedge being banned from Twitter that day.
The first confirmed case wasn’t until December 8th, last I heard.
Confirmed cases are different from “cases the US intelligence service knows about because they lauched a cyber attack on the WIV and all the private and professional emails of it’s employees”.
Didn’t know this one, but that’s pretty vague. Source?
Yes, but if you take 1 billion Chinese and maybe 200 employees of the WIV what are the odds that “patient zero” is from the WIV?
5,000,000 to 1.
This is obviously not the right calculation, and I expected better from a rationalist. I’ve already counted the fact that it started in Wuhan where they happen to have a biosafety 4 lab studying coronaviruses as the strongest evidence in favor of the leak. You may feel I didn’t count it strongly enough, but that’s a different argument. What does the entire population of China have to do with it after that point? Nothing. You’re being completely arbitrary by drawing the boundary there. Why not the entire world?
The population of Wuhan, maybe, but we can probably narrow it down more than that, and then we also have to account for the fact that the WIV employees would be much more likely to report anything out of the ordinary when it comes to illness. For the rest of Wuhan at the time, the most common symptoms would have been reported as “the flu” or “a cold”. Mild cases are common, and at least a third of people have no noticeable symptoms at all, especially early on with the less virulent original variant.
The population of Wuhan is about 8.5 million, and the number of staff at WIV, I think was more like 600. So that’s more like 14,000 : 1. I think WIV staff could be easily 20x more likely to notice that the disease was novel, so that’s more like 700 : 1. That’s still pretty strong evidence, but nowhere near what you’re proposing.
This is obviously not the right calculation, and I expected better from a rationalist. I’ve already counted the fact that it started in Wuhan where they happen to have a biosafety 4 lab studying coronaviruses as the strongest evidence in favor of the leak.
I have 99% as my likelihood for the lab leak not 99,9999%, I don’t suggest that 5,000,000 to 1 should be the end number. It’s just a random calculation.
I am often enough at metaculus and played the credence game to not go for the 99.9% that Dr. Roland Wiesendanger proposes.
I think WIV staff could be easily 20x more likely to notice that the disease was novel, so that’s more like 700 : 1.
If that’s your calculation how can you justify only 65%, especially when that’s only one of the pieces of evidence?
I think it’s embarrasing to withold a database that was created to help us fight a pandemic in times of a pandemic. It’s bad for any future Chinese researcher who wants to collaborate with the West if it’s clear that we can’t count of resources that we create together with China to help us in a crisis to actually be available in the crisis. Additionally, why did the coverup start in September 2019?
Yes, but if you take 1 billion Chinese and maybe 200 employees of the WIV what are the odds that “patient zero” is from the WIV?
5,000,000 to 1.
No, it was American/International supression because of NIH funding gain of function involving the WIV in violation of the ban in 2015 and not putting it through the safety review process that was instituted in 2017.
It’s about how important it was for Farrar on the 2nd of February to get through to Tedros and have Tedros decide while talking about ZeroHedge and Tedros announcing the next day that he’s cooperating with Google/Twitter to fight “misinformation” and ZeroHedge being banned from Twitter that day.
It’s complex, but if you want to understand the point I have it written down in https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wQLXNjMKXdXXdK8kL/fauci-s-emails-and-the-lab-leak-hypothesis
Confirmed cases are different from “cases the US intelligence service knows about because they lauched a cyber attack on the WIV and all the private and professional emails of it’s employees”.
It’s the letter that the NIH send the EcoHealth Alliance with question that have to be explained before they want to give funding to the EcoHealth Alliance again. Generally, if you want sources read https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wQLXNjMKXdXXdK8kL/fauci-s-emails-and-the-lab-leak-hypothesis
This is obviously not the right calculation, and I expected better from a rationalist. I’ve already counted the fact that it started in Wuhan where they happen to have a biosafety 4 lab studying coronaviruses as the strongest evidence in favor of the leak. You may feel I didn’t count it strongly enough, but that’s a different argument. What does the entire population of China have to do with it after that point? Nothing. You’re being completely arbitrary by drawing the boundary there. Why not the entire world?
The population of Wuhan, maybe, but we can probably narrow it down more than that, and then we also have to account for the fact that the WIV employees would be much more likely to report anything out of the ordinary when it comes to illness. For the rest of Wuhan at the time, the most common symptoms would have been reported as “the flu” or “a cold”. Mild cases are common, and at least a third of people have no noticeable symptoms at all, especially early on with the less virulent original variant.
The population of Wuhan is about 8.5 million, and the number of staff at WIV, I think was more like 600. So that’s more like 14,000 : 1. I think WIV staff could be easily 20x more likely to notice that the disease was novel, so that’s more like 700 : 1. That’s still pretty strong evidence, but nowhere near what you’re proposing.
I have 99% as my likelihood for the lab leak not 99,9999%, I don’t suggest that 5,000,000 to 1 should be the end number. It’s just a random calculation.
I am often enough at metaculus and played the credence game to not go for the 99.9% that Dr. Roland Wiesendanger proposes.
If that’s your calculation how can you justify only 65%, especially when that’s only one of the pieces of evidence?