I don’t think I expect AGI pre 2030, but I notice that my life plans are not premised on ignoring/granting minimal weight to pre 2030 timelines (e.g. I don’t know if I’ll pursue a PhD despite planning to last year and finding the prospect of a PhD very appealing [I really enjoy the student life (especially the social contact) and getting paid to learn/research is appealing]).
After completing my TCS masters, I (currently) plan to take a year or two to pursue independent research and see how much progress I make. I might decide to pursue a PhD afterwards if I judge it beneficial in order to make progress on my research agendas (broadly, descriptive formal theories of intelligent systems with the hope of iterating towards constructive theories) [and expect to have enough time] but it’s not an opportunity cost I want to pay upfront.
This suggests my revealed timelines are shorter than I’d have guessed. 😌
[A caveat to the above is that my immigration status may force the choice upon me if e.g. I need to legibly be a very high skilled worker, though maybe an Msc is enough?]
Revealed Timelines
Shorter timelines feel real to me.
I don’t think I expect AGI pre 2030, but I notice that my life plans are not premised on ignoring/granting minimal weight to pre 2030 timelines (e.g. I don’t know if I’ll pursue a PhD despite planning to last year and finding the prospect of a PhD very appealing [I really enjoy the student life (especially the social contact) and getting paid to learn/research is appealing]).
After completing my TCS masters, I (currently) plan to take a year or two to pursue independent research and see how much progress I make. I might decide to pursue a PhD afterwards if I judge it beneficial in order to make progress on my research agendas (broadly, descriptive formal theories of intelligent systems with the hope of iterating towards constructive theories) [and expect to have enough time] but it’s not an opportunity cost I want to pay upfront.
This suggests my revealed timelines are shorter than I’d have guessed. 😌
[A caveat to the above is that my immigration status may force the choice upon me if e.g. I need to legibly be a very high skilled worker, though maybe an Msc is enough?]