I additionally think the scenario is very unlikely. So unlikely that wargaming for that scenario is only useful insomuch as your strategy is general enough to apply to many other scenarios.
Wargaming for that scenario in particular is privileging a hypothesis that hasn’t warranted it.
The scenario is very unlikely on priors and its 2022 predictions didn’t quite bear out.
Part of the advantage of being specific about 2022 and 2023 is that it allows people to update on it toward taking the whole scenario more or less seriously.
Having scenarios that are unlikely based on priors means that you can update more if they turn out to go that way than scenarios that you deemed to be likely to happen anyway.
I additionally think the scenario is very unlikely. So unlikely that wargaming for that scenario is only useful insomuch as your strategy is general enough to apply to many other scenarios.
Wargaming for that scenario in particular is privileging a hypothesis that hasn’t warranted it.
The scenario is very unlikely on priors and its 2022 predictions didn’t quite bear out.
Part of the advantage of being specific about 2022 and 2023 is that it allows people to update on it toward taking the whole scenario more or less seriously.
I didn’t need to see 2022 to know that the scenario would not be an accurate description of reality.
On priors that was just very unlikely.
Having scenarios that are unlikely based on priors means that you can update more if they turn out to go that way than scenarios that you deemed to be likely to happen anyway.