The problem with this (from the point of view of people like turchin) is that many people do not show many signs of not wanting to die. He mentioned this recently.
I don’t think lack of life extension research funding actually comes from people not wanting to live, I think it has more to do with the fact that the vast majority of people don’t take it seriously yet and don’t beleive that we could actually significantly change our lifespan. That’s compounded with a kind of “sour grapes” defensive reflex where when people think they can never get something they try to convince themselves they don’t really want it.
I think that if progress is made that at some point there will be a phase change where, when more people start to realize that it is possible and suddenly flip from not caring at all to caring a great deal.
This is a falsifiable empirical prediction. We will see whether it turns out to be true or not. I think more likely you will see some ambivalence in people’s response. I do see many people around the age of 80 who think they have lived long enough, and it pretty clearly has nothing to do with their state of health. I accept the same thing to happen in many cases even after aging can be prevented biologically. Calling it “sour grapes” is just not recognizing that some people are different from you.
This is a falsifiable empirical prediction. We will see whether it turns out to be true or not.
Yes, agreed.
I should probably be more precise. I don’t think that 100% of people will necessarally choose longevity treatments once they become available. But depending on the details, I think it will be pretty high. A think that a very high percentage of people who today sound ambivalent about it will go to great lengths to get it once it becomes something that exists in reality.
I also think that the concern that “other people” will get to live a very long time and you might not will motivate a lot of people. People are even deeply worried about the fear that rich people might live forever and they might not now, even people who don’t seem to really believe that it’s possible seem to be worried about that, which is interesting.
But depending on the details, I think it will be pretty high.
It would certainly have to depend on the details, since obviously many people do not choose the longevity treatments that are already available, like healthy eating and exercise, even though they are usually not very expensive. Sure, maybe someone will be more motivated by an extra 50-100 years than by an extra 5-15. But then again maybe they won’t.
It would certainly have to depend on the details, since obviously many people do not choose the longevity treatments that are already available, like healthy eating and exercise, even though they are usually not very expensive.
Eh. That seems to be a pretty different question.
Let’s say that an hour of exercise a day will extend your lifespan by 5 years. If you sleep 8 hours a night, that’s about 6.3% of your waking time; if you live 85 years without exercise vs 90 years with exercise, you probably have close to the same amount of non-exercising waking time either way. So if it’s worthwhile probably depends on how much you enjoy or don’t enjoy exercise, how much you value free time when you’re 30 vs time when you’re 85, ect.
I think exercise is a good deal all around, but then again that’s partly because I think there’s a significant chance that we will get longevity treatments in our lifetime, and want to be around to see them. It’s not the same kind of clear-cut decision that, say, “take a pill every morning to live 5 years longer” would be.
“take a pill every morning to live 5 years longer”
It is an assumption that it will be that easy. If there is a complicated surgery that will extend people’s lives by 5 years, or even by 20, it is likely that many people will not want it.
Sure. Obviously people will always consider trade-offs, in terms of risks, costs, and side effects.
Although it is worth mentioning that if you look at, say, most people with cancer, people seem to be willing to go through extremly difficult and dangerous procedures even to just have a small chance of extending lifespan a little bit. But perhaps people will be less willing to do that with a more vague problem like “aging”? Hard to say.
I don’t think it will stay like that, though. Maybe the first commercially available aging treatment will be borderline enough that’s it’s a reasonable debate if it’s worthwhile, but I expect them to continue improve from that point.
The problem with this (from the point of view of people like turchin) is that many people do not show many signs of not wanting to die. He mentioned this recently.
I don’t think lack of life extension research funding actually comes from people not wanting to live, I think it has more to do with the fact that the vast majority of people don’t take it seriously yet and don’t beleive that we could actually significantly change our lifespan. That’s compounded with a kind of “sour grapes” defensive reflex where when people think they can never get something they try to convince themselves they don’t really want it.
I think that if progress is made that at some point there will be a phase change where, when more people start to realize that it is possible and suddenly flip from not caring at all to caring a great deal.
This is a falsifiable empirical prediction. We will see whether it turns out to be true or not. I think more likely you will see some ambivalence in people’s response. I do see many people around the age of 80 who think they have lived long enough, and it pretty clearly has nothing to do with their state of health. I accept the same thing to happen in many cases even after aging can be prevented biologically. Calling it “sour grapes” is just not recognizing that some people are different from you.
Yes, agreed.
I should probably be more precise. I don’t think that 100% of people will necessarally choose longevity treatments once they become available. But depending on the details, I think it will be pretty high. A think that a very high percentage of people who today sound ambivalent about it will go to great lengths to get it once it becomes something that exists in reality.
I also think that the concern that “other people” will get to live a very long time and you might not will motivate a lot of people. People are even deeply worried about the fear that rich people might live forever and they might not now, even people who don’t seem to really believe that it’s possible seem to be worried about that, which is interesting.
It would certainly have to depend on the details, since obviously many people do not choose the longevity treatments that are already available, like healthy eating and exercise, even though they are usually not very expensive. Sure, maybe someone will be more motivated by an extra 50-100 years than by an extra 5-15. But then again maybe they won’t.
Eh. That seems to be a pretty different question.
Let’s say that an hour of exercise a day will extend your lifespan by 5 years. If you sleep 8 hours a night, that’s about 6.3% of your waking time; if you live 85 years without exercise vs 90 years with exercise, you probably have close to the same amount of non-exercising waking time either way. So if it’s worthwhile probably depends on how much you enjoy or don’t enjoy exercise, how much you value free time when you’re 30 vs time when you’re 85, ect.
I think exercise is a good deal all around, but then again that’s partly because I think there’s a significant chance that we will get longevity treatments in our lifetime, and want to be around to see them. It’s not the same kind of clear-cut decision that, say, “take a pill every morning to live 5 years longer” would be.
It is an assumption that it will be that easy. If there is a complicated surgery that will extend people’s lives by 5 years, or even by 20, it is likely that many people will not want it.
Sure. Obviously people will always consider trade-offs, in terms of risks, costs, and side effects.
Although it is worth mentioning that if you look at, say, most people with cancer, people seem to be willing to go through extremly difficult and dangerous procedures even to just have a small chance of extending lifespan a little bit. But perhaps people will be less willing to do that with a more vague problem like “aging”? Hard to say.
I don’t think it will stay like that, though. Maybe the first commercially available aging treatment will be borderline enough that’s it’s a reasonable debate if it’s worthwhile, but I expect them to continue improve from that point.