I can’t speak for him, but I’m pretty sure he’d agree, yes.
Hrm. That modifies my view in an unfortunate direction.
I still don’t fully believe it, because I’ve seen a strong regularity that everything looks easy until you try it, no matter how much of an expert you are… and in this case actually making viruses is only one part of the necessary expertise. But it makes me more nervous.
I don’t know, sorry! My guess is that they are generally much less concerned than he is, primarily because they’ve spent their careers thinking about natural risks instead of human ones and haven’t (not that I think they should!) spent a lot of time thinking about how someone might cause large-scale harm.
Just for the record, I’ve spent a lot of my life thinking about humans trying to cause large scale harm (or at least doing things that could have large scale harm as an effect). Yes, in a different area, but nonetheless it’s led me to believe that people tend to overestimate risks. And you’re talking about a scale of effecicacy that I don’t think I could get with a computer program, which is a much more predictable thing working in a much more predictable environment.
If you’re up for getting into this, is it that you don’t think we should consider people who don’t exist yet in our decisions?
I’ve written a lot about it on Less Wrong. But, yes, your one-sentence summary is basically right. The only quibble is that “yet” is cheating. They don’t exist, period. Even if you take a “timeless” view, they still don’t exist, anywhere in spacetime, if they never actually come into being.
Hrm. That modifies my view in an unfortunate direction.
I still don’t fully believe it, because I’ve seen a strong regularity that everything looks easy until you try it, no matter how much of an expert you are… and in this case actually making viruses is only one part of the necessary expertise. But it makes me more nervous.
Just for the record, I’ve spent a lot of my life thinking about humans trying to cause large scale harm (or at least doing things that could have large scale harm as an effect). Yes, in a different area, but nonetheless it’s led me to believe that people tend to overestimate risks. And you’re talking about a scale of effecicacy that I don’t think I could get with a computer program, which is a much more predictable thing working in a much more predictable environment.
I’ve written a lot about it on Less Wrong. But, yes, your one-sentence summary is basically right. The only quibble is that “yet” is cheating. They don’t exist, period. Even if you take a “timeless” view, they still don’t exist, anywhere in spacetime, if they never actually come into being.