You’re saying that it’s common knowledge that the oracle is, in fact, predicting the future; is this part of the thought experiment?
If so, there’s another issue. Presumably I wouldn’t be giving the oracle $1000 if the oracle hadn’t approached me first; it’s only a true prediction of the future because it was made. In a world where actual predictions of the future are common, there should be laws against this, similar to laws against blackmail (even though it’s not blackmail).
(I obviously hand over the $1000 first, before trying to appeal to the law.)
(I obviously hand over the $1000 first, before trying to appeal to the law.)
Why? People who use the strategy of always paying don’t live any longer than people who use the strategy of never paying. They also save money and get to find out a week in advance if they’d die so they can get their affairs in order.
That wasn’t obvious to me. It’s certainly false that “people who use the strategy of always paying have the same odds of losing $1000 as people who use the strategy of never paying”. This means that the oracle’s prediction takes its own effect into account. When asking about my future, the oracle doesn’t ask “Will Kindly give me $1000 or die in the next week?” but “If hearing a prophecy about it, will Kindly give me $1000 or die in the next week?”
Hearing the prediction certainly changes the odds that the first clause will come true; it’s not obvious to me (and may not be obvious to the oracle, either) that it doesn’t change the odds of the second clause.
It’s true that if I precommit to the strategy of not giving money in this specific case, then as long as many other people do not so precommit, I’m probably safe. But if nobody gives the oracle money, the oracle probably just switches to a different strategy that some people are vulnerable to. There is certainly some prophecy-driven exploit that the oracle can use that will succeed against me; it’s just a question of whether that strategy is sufficiently general that an oracle will use it on people. Unless an oracle is out to get me in particular.
You’re saying that it’s common knowledge that the oracle is, in fact, predicting the future; is this part of the thought experiment?
If so, there’s another issue. Presumably I wouldn’t be giving the oracle $1000 if the oracle hadn’t approached me first; it’s only a true prediction of the future because it was made. In a world where actual predictions of the future are common, there should be laws against this, similar to laws against blackmail (even though it’s not blackmail).
(I obviously hand over the $1000 first, before trying to appeal to the law.)
Why? People who use the strategy of always paying don’t live any longer than people who use the strategy of never paying. They also save money and get to find out a week in advance if they’d die so they can get their affairs in order.
That wasn’t obvious to me. It’s certainly false that “people who use the strategy of always paying have the same odds of losing $1000 as people who use the strategy of never paying”. This means that the oracle’s prediction takes its own effect into account. When asking about my future, the oracle doesn’t ask “Will Kindly give me $1000 or die in the next week?” but “If hearing a prophecy about it, will Kindly give me $1000 or die in the next week?”
Hearing the prediction certainly changes the odds that the first clause will come true; it’s not obvious to me (and may not be obvious to the oracle, either) that it doesn’t change the odds of the second clause.
It’s true that if I precommit to the strategy of not giving money in this specific case, then as long as many other people do not so precommit, I’m probably safe. But if nobody gives the oracle money, the oracle probably just switches to a different strategy that some people are vulnerable to. There is certainly some prophecy-driven exploit that the oracle can use that will succeed against me; it’s just a question of whether that strategy is sufficiently general that an oracle will use it on people. Unless an oracle is out to get me in particular.