I am impressed regarding Helen Toner’s China comment!
For a while I have been tracking a hypothesis that nobody working in DC in AI Policy would openly and prominently speak against competition with China being a current priority, but this quote shows that hypothesis does not hold.
Now I will track whether any such person explicitly states that it doesn’t matter who gets there first, civilization will most likely end regardless, and that competition shouldn’t be a priority even if China were ahead of the US. I haven’t seen a prominent instance of this happening yet.
I update toward a model of Helen’s statements here not being very representative of what people in DC feel comfortable saying aloud, though to me it’s still nice to know that literally anyone is able to say these words.
Generally, it is difficult to understate how completely the PRC is seen as a bad-faith actor in DC these days. Many folks saw them engage in mass economic espionage for a decade while repeatedly promising to stop; those folks are now more senior in their careers than those formative moments. Then COVID happened, and while not everyone believes in the lab leak hypothesis, basically everyone believes that the PRC sure as heck reflexively covered up whether or not they were actually culpable.
(Edit: to be clear, reporting, not endorsing, these claims)
This is an area where I expect a lot of my info sources to be pretty adversarial, and furthermore I haven’t looked into these issues a great deal, so I don’t have a developed perspective on how bad-faith the Chinese government’s agreements and information sources are.
I think I recall pretty adversarial information-sharing behavior from China toward the rest of the world in March 2020 (which I consider a massive deal), though I’d have to re-read Wikipedia and LessWrong to recall what exactly was going on.
I am impressed regarding Helen Toner’s China comment!
For a while I have been tracking a hypothesis that nobody working in DC in AI Policy would openly and prominently speak against competition with China being a current priority, but this quote shows that hypothesis does not hold.
Now I will track whether any such person explicitly states that it doesn’t matter who gets there first, civilization will most likely end regardless, and that competition shouldn’t be a priority even if China were ahead of the US. I haven’t seen a prominent instance of this happening yet.
Toner is one of the only people criticizing the China arms race claims, like last year: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/illusion-chinas-ai-prowess-regulation-helen-toner This also earned her some enmity on social media as a Commie stooge last year.
Appreciate the link (and for others, here’s an archived version without the paywall.)
I update toward a model of Helen’s statements here not being very representative of what people in DC feel comfortable saying aloud, though to me it’s still nice to know that literally anyone is able to say these words.
Generally, it is difficult to understate how completely the PRC is seen as a bad-faith actor in DC these days. Many folks saw them engage in mass economic espionage for a decade while repeatedly promising to stop; those folks are now more senior in their careers than those formative moments. Then COVID happened, and while not everyone believes in the lab leak hypothesis, basically everyone believes that the PRC sure as heck reflexively covered up whether or not they were actually culpable.
(Edit: to be clear, reporting, not endorsing, these claims)
Thanks for the info.
This is an area where I expect a lot of my info sources to be pretty adversarial, and furthermore I haven’t looked into these issues a great deal, so I don’t have a developed perspective on how bad-faith the Chinese government’s agreements and information sources are.
I think I recall pretty adversarial information-sharing behavior from China toward the rest of the world in March 2020 (which I consider a massive deal), though I’d have to re-read Wikipedia and LessWrong to recall what exactly was going on.