Agreed— my main point here is that the marketplace of ideas undervalues criticism.
I think one perspective could be “we should all just aim to do objective truth-seeking”, and as stated I agree with it.
The main issue with that frame, imo, is that it’s very easy to forget that the epistemic environment can be tilted in favor of certain perspectives.
EG I think it can be useful for “objective truth-seeking efforts” to be aware of some of the culture/status games that underincentivize criticism of labs & amplify lab-friendly perspectives.
RE 3:
Good to hear that responses have been positive to lab watch. My impression is that this is a mix of: (a) lab watch doesn’t really threaten the interests of labs (especially Anthropic, which is currently winning & currently the favorite lab among senior AIS ppl), (b) the tides have been shifting somewhat and it is genuinely less taboo to criticize labs than a year ago, and (c) EAs respond more positively to criticism that feels more detailed/nuanced (look I have these 10 categories, let’s rate the labs on each dimension) than criticisms that are more about metastrategy (e.g., challenging the entire RSP frame or advocating for policymaker outreach).
RE 4: I haven’t heard anything about Conjecture that I’ve found particularly concerning. Would be interested in you clarifying (either here or via DM) what you’ve heard. (And clarification note that my original point was less “Conjecture hasn’t done anything wrong” and more “I suspect Conjecture will be more heavily scrutinized and examined and have a disproportionate amount of optimization pressure applied against it given its clear push for things that would hurt lab interests.”)
RE 1& 2:
Agreed— my main point here is that the marketplace of ideas undervalues criticism.
I think one perspective could be “we should all just aim to do objective truth-seeking”, and as stated I agree with it.
The main issue with that frame, imo, is that it’s very easy to forget that the epistemic environment can be tilted in favor of certain perspectives.
EG I think it can be useful for “objective truth-seeking efforts” to be aware of some of the culture/status games that underincentivize criticism of labs & amplify lab-friendly perspectives.
RE 3:
Good to hear that responses have been positive to lab watch. My impression is that this is a mix of: (a) lab watch doesn’t really threaten the interests of labs (especially Anthropic, which is currently winning & currently the favorite lab among senior AIS ppl), (b) the tides have been shifting somewhat and it is genuinely less taboo to criticize labs than a year ago, and (c) EAs respond more positively to criticism that feels more detailed/nuanced (look I have these 10 categories, let’s rate the labs on each dimension) than criticisms that are more about metastrategy (e.g., challenging the entire RSP frame or advocating for policymaker outreach).
RE 4: I haven’t heard anything about Conjecture that I’ve found particularly concerning. Would be interested in you clarifying (either here or via DM) what you’ve heard. (And clarification note that my original point was less “Conjecture hasn’t done anything wrong” and more “I suspect Conjecture will be more heavily scrutinized and examined and have a disproportionate amount of optimization pressure applied against it given its clear push for things that would hurt lab interests.”)