One thing I’d be bearish on is visibility into the latest methods being used for frontier AI methods, which would downstream reduce the relevance of alignment research except for the research within the manhattan-like project itself.
This is already somewhat true of the big labs eg. methods used for o1 like models. However, there is still some visibility in the form of system cards and reports which hint at the methods. When the primary intention is racing ahead of China, I doubt there will be reports discussing methods used for frontier systems.
One thing I’d be bearish on is visibility into the latest methods being used for frontier AI methods, which would downstream reduce the relevance of alignment research except for the research within the manhattan-like project itself. This is already somewhat true of the big labs eg. methods used for o1 like models. However, there is still some visibility in the form of system cards and reports which hint at the methods. When the primary intention is racing ahead of China, I doubt there will be reports discussing methods used for frontier systems.