Can you say more about scenarios where you envision a later project happening that has different motivations?
I think in the current zeitgeist, such a project would almost definitely be primarily motivated by beating China. It doesn’t seem clear to me that it’s good to wait for a new zeitgeist. Reasons:
A company might develop AGI (or an AI system that is very good at AI R&D that can get to AGI) before a major zeitgeist change.
The longer we wait, the more capable the “most capable model that wasn’t secured” is. So we could risk getting into a scenario where people want to pause but since China and the US both have GPT-Nminus1, both sides feel compelled to race forward (whereas this wouldn’t have happened if security had kicked off sooner.)
Can you say more about scenarios where you envision a later project happening that has different motivations?
I think in the current zeitgeist, such a project would almost definitely be primarily motivated by beating China. It doesn’t seem clear to me that it’s good to wait for a new zeitgeist. Reasons:
A company might develop AGI (or an AI system that is very good at AI R&D that can get to AGI) before a major zeitgeist change.
The longer we wait, the more capable the “most capable model that wasn’t secured” is. So we could risk getting into a scenario where people want to pause but since China and the US both have GPT-Nminus1, both sides feel compelled to race forward (whereas this wouldn’t have happened if security had kicked off sooner.)