What I suspect happened is that he talked to various big names in tech, including the CEOs of companies who make decisions about automation, and they were bullish on the timelines. Would that kind of scenario qualify as being non-stupid?
No. That’s a good point. It seems like “fallacious argument from authority” lends itself to black-and-white thinking that’s just not appropriate in many cases. Reading the tea leaves has its value. If I had to guess, Pinker was looking for a timely quote by a politician his readers are likely to be sympathetic to, and this one was convenient.
I still think that there are many times when it’s best as a rule to just dismiss statements with the form of “arguments from authority.” This fits the criteria, and it might be that sometimes you throw out the baby with the bathwater this way. Then again, there could be equal value in becoming sensitive to when it’s appropriate to “tune in” to this sort of evidence. That probably depends on the individual and their goals.
No. That’s a good point. It seems like “fallacious argument from authority” lends itself to black-and-white thinking that’s just not appropriate in many cases. Reading the tea leaves has its value. If I had to guess, Pinker was looking for a timely quote by a politician his readers are likely to be sympathetic to, and this one was convenient.
I still think that there are many times when it’s best as a rule to just dismiss statements with the form of “arguments from authority.” This fits the criteria, and it might be that sometimes you throw out the baby with the bathwater this way. Then again, there could be equal value in becoming sensitive to when it’s appropriate to “tune in” to this sort of evidence. That probably depends on the individual and their goals.