What does it mean when one “should anticipate” something? At least in my mind, it points strongly to a certain intuition, but the idea behind that intuition feels confused. “Should” in order to achieve a certain end? To meet some criterion? To boost a term in your utility function?
I think the confusion here might be important, because replacing “should anticipate” with a less ambiguous “should” seems to make the problem easier to reason about, and supports your point.
For instance, suppose that you’re going to get your brain copied next week. After you get copied, you’ll take a physics test, and your copy will take a chemistry test (maybe this is your school’s solution to a scheduling conflict during finals). You want both test scores to be high, but you expect taking either test without preparation will result in a low score. Which test should you prepare for?
It seems clear to me that you should prepare for both the chemistry test and the physics test. The version of you that got copied will be able to use the results of the physics preparation, and the copy will be able to use the copied results of the chemistry preparation. Does that mean you should anticipate taking a chemistry test and anticipate taking a physics test? I feel like it does, but the intuition behind the original sense of “should anticipate” seems to squirm out from under it.
I have a closely related objection/clarification. I agree with the main thrust of Rob’s post, but this part:
Presumably the question xlr8harder cares about here isn’t semantic question of how linguistic communities use the word “you”...
Rather, I assume xlr8harder cares about more substantive questions like: (1) If I expect to be uploaded tomorrow, should I care about the upload in the same ways (and to the same degree) that I care about my future biological self? (2) Should I anticipate experiencing what my upload experiences? (3) If the scanning and uploading process requires destroying my biological brain, should I say yes to the procedure?
..strikes me as confused or at least confusing.
Take your chemistry/physics tests example. What does “I anticipate the experience of a sense of accomplishment in answering the chemistry test” mean? Well for one thing, it certainly indicates that you believe the experience is likely to happen (to someone). For another, it often means that you believe it will happen to you—but that invites the semantic question that Rob says this isn’t about. For a third—and I propose that this is a key point that makes us feel there is a “substantive” question here—it indicates that you empathize with this future person who does well on the test.
But I don’t see how empathizing or not-empathizing can be assessed for accuracy. It can be consistent or inconsistent with the things one cares about, which I suppose makes it subject to rational evaluation, but that looks different from accuracy/inaccuracy.
“Should” in order to achieve a certain end? To meet some criterion? To boost a term in your utility function?
In the OP: “Should” in order to have more accurate beliefs/expectations. E.g., I should anticipate (with high probability) that the Sun will rise tomorrow in my part of the world, rather than it remaining night.
Suppose someone draws a “personal identity” line to exclude this future sunrise-witnessing person. Then if you claim that, by not anticipating, they are degrading the accuracy of the sunrise-witness’s beliefs, they might reply that you are begging the question.
What does it mean when one “should anticipate” something? At least in my mind, it points strongly to a certain intuition, but the idea behind that intuition feels confused. “Should” in order to achieve a certain end? To meet some criterion? To boost a term in your utility function?
I think the confusion here might be important, because replacing “should anticipate” with a less ambiguous “should” seems to make the problem easier to reason about, and supports your point.
For instance, suppose that you’re going to get your brain copied next week. After you get copied, you’ll take a physics test, and your copy will take a chemistry test (maybe this is your school’s solution to a scheduling conflict during finals). You want both test scores to be high, but you expect taking either test without preparation will result in a low score. Which test should you prepare for?
It seems clear to me that you should prepare for both the chemistry test and the physics test. The version of you that got copied will be able to use the results of the physics preparation, and the copy will be able to use the copied results of the chemistry preparation. Does that mean you should anticipate taking a chemistry test and anticipate taking a physics test? I feel like it does, but the intuition behind the original sense of “should anticipate” seems to squirm out from under it.
I have a closely related objection/clarification. I agree with the main thrust of Rob’s post, but this part:
..strikes me as confused or at least confusing.
Take your chemistry/physics tests example. What does “I anticipate the experience of a sense of accomplishment in answering the chemistry test” mean? Well for one thing, it certainly indicates that you believe the experience is likely to happen (to someone). For another, it often means that you believe it will happen to you—but that invites the semantic question that Rob says this isn’t about. For a third—and I propose that this is a key point that makes us feel there is a “substantive” question here—it indicates that you empathize with this future person who does well on the test.
But I don’t see how empathizing or not-empathizing can be assessed for accuracy. It can be consistent or inconsistent with the things one cares about, which I suppose makes it subject to rational evaluation, but that looks different from accuracy/inaccuracy.
In the OP: “Should” in order to have more accurate beliefs/expectations. E.g., I should anticipate (with high probability) that the Sun will rise tomorrow in my part of the world, rather than it remaining night.
Suppose someone draws a “personal identity” line to exclude this future sunrise-witnessing person. Then if you claim that, by not anticipating, they are degrading the accuracy of the sunrise-witness’s beliefs, they might reply that you are begging the question.