Evidently there are domains where computers beat humans today—but if you look at what has to happen for machines to take the jobs of most human workers, they will need bigger and cheaper brains to do that. “Within an order of magnitude or so” seems like a reasonable ballpark figure to me. If you are looking for more details about why I think that, they are not available at this time.
I suspect that the controlling reason why you think that is that you assume it takes human-like hardware to accomplish human-like tasks, and greatly underestimate the advantages of a mind being designed rather than evolved.
Evidently there are domains where computers beat humans today—but if you look at what has to happen for machines to take the jobs of most human workers, they will need bigger and cheaper brains to do that. “Within an order of magnitude or so” seems like a reasonable ballpark figure to me. If you are looking for more details about why I think that, they are not available at this time.
I suspect that the controlling reason why you think that is that you assume it takes human-like hardware to accomplish human-like tasks, and greatly underestimate the advantages of a mind being designed rather than evolved.