When I’m talking to someone I respect (and want to admire me), I definitely feel an urge to distance myself from EY. I feel like I’m biting a social bullet in order to advocate for SIAI-like beliefs or action.
What’s more, this casts a shadow over my actual beliefs.
This is in spite of the fact that I love EY’s writing, and actually enjoy his fearless geeky humor (“hit by a meteorite” is indeed more fun than the conventional “hit by a bus”).
The fear of being represented by EY is mostly due to what he’s saying, not how he’s saying it. That is, even if he were always dignified and measured, he’d catch nearly as much flak. If he’d avoided certain topics entirely, that would have made a significant difference, but on the other hand, he’s effectively counter-signaled that he’s fully honest and uncensored in public (of course he is probably not, exactly), which I think is also valuable.
I think EY can win by saying enough true things, convincingly, that smart people will be persuaded that he’s credible. It’s perhaps true that better PR will speed the process—by enough for it to be worth it? That’s up to him.
The comments in this diavlog with Scott Aaronson—while some are by obvious axe-grinders—are critical of EY’s manner. People appear to hate nothing more than (what they see as) undeserved confidence. Who knows how prevalent this adverse reaction to EY is, since the set of commenters is self-selecting.
People who are floundering in a debate with EY (e.g. Jason Lanier) seem to think they can bank on a “you crazy low-status sci-fi nerd” rebuttal to EY. This can score huge with lazy or unintellectual people if it’s allowed to succeed.
This can score huge with lazy or unintellectual people if it’s allowed to succeed.
What is the likelihood that lazy or unintellectual people would have ever done anything to reduce existential risk regardless of any particular advocate for/against?
They might give money to the people will actually use do the reduction in existential risk. I’d also note that even more people who are generally intellectuals or at least think of themselves as intellectuals, this sort of argument can if phrased in the right way still impact them; scifi is still a very low status association for many of those people.
I think Eneasz is right, but I agree with you that we should care about the support of ordinary people and those who choose to specialize elsewhere.
I was thinking also of the motivational effect of average people’s (dis)approval on the gifted. Sure, many intellectual milestones were first reached by those who either needed less to be accepted, or drew their in-group/out-group boundary more tightly around themselves, but social pressure matters.
When I’m talking to someone I respect (and want to admire me), I definitely feel an urge to distance myself from EY. I feel like I’m biting a social bullet in order to advocate for SIAI-like beliefs or action.
What’s more, this casts a shadow over my actual beliefs.
This is in spite of the fact that I love EY’s writing, and actually enjoy his fearless geeky humor (“hit by a meteorite” is indeed more fun than the conventional “hit by a bus”).
The fear of being represented by EY is mostly due to what he’s saying, not how he’s saying it. That is, even if he were always dignified and measured, he’d catch nearly as much flak. If he’d avoided certain topics entirely, that would have made a significant difference, but on the other hand, he’s effectively counter-signaled that he’s fully honest and uncensored in public (of course he is probably not, exactly), which I think is also valuable.
I think EY can win by saying enough true things, convincingly, that smart people will be persuaded that he’s credible. It’s perhaps true that better PR will speed the process—by enough for it to be worth it? That’s up to him.
The comments in this diavlog with Scott Aaronson—while some are by obvious axe-grinders—are critical of EY’s manner. People appear to hate nothing more than (what they see as) undeserved confidence. Who knows how prevalent this adverse reaction to EY is, since the set of commenters is self-selecting.
People who are floundering in a debate with EY (e.g. Jason Lanier) seem to think they can bank on a “you crazy low-status sci-fi nerd” rebuttal to EY. This can score huge with lazy or unintellectual people if it’s allowed to succeed.
What is the likelihood that lazy or unintellectual people would have ever done anything to reduce existential risk regardless of any particular advocate for/against?
They might give money to the people will actually use do the reduction in existential risk. I’d also note that even more people who are generally intellectuals or at least think of themselves as intellectuals, this sort of argument can if phrased in the right way still impact them; scifi is still a very low status association for many of those people.
I think Eneasz is right, but I agree with you that we should care about the support of ordinary people and those who choose to specialize elsewhere.
I was thinking also of the motivational effect of average people’s (dis)approval on the gifted. Sure, many intellectual milestones were first reached by those who either needed less to be accepted, or drew their in-group/out-group boundary more tightly around themselves, but social pressure matters.