Right, it’s just (in my and most other AI researchers’[*] opinion) overwhelmingly likely that we are in fact nowhere near (the capability of) it. Although it’s interesting to me that I don’t feel there’s that much difference in probability of “(good enough to) run away improving itself quickly past human level AI” in the next year, and in the next 10 years—both extremely close to 0 is the most specific I can be at this point. That suggests I haven’t really quantified my beliefs exactly yet.
[*] I actually only work on natural language processing using really dumb machine learning, i.e. not general AI.
Sadly, there’s no guarantee of that.
Right, it’s just (in my and most other AI researchers’[*] opinion) overwhelmingly likely that we are in fact nowhere near (the capability of) it. Although it’s interesting to me that I don’t feel there’s that much difference in probability of “(good enough to) run away improving itself quickly past human level AI” in the next year, and in the next 10 years—both extremely close to 0 is the most specific I can be at this point. That suggests I haven’t really quantified my beliefs exactly yet.
[*] I actually only work on natural language processing using really dumb machine learning, i.e. not general AI.