I don’t think founder/investor class conflict makes that much sense as an explanation for that. It’s easy to imagine a world in which investors wanted their money returned when the team updates downwards on their likelihood of success. (In fact, that sometimes happens! I don’t know whether Sam would do that but my guess is only if the founders want to give up.)
And pivots are supposed to be great, the more pivots the better. So this isn’t totally wrong, things do evolve in ways you can’t totally predict.… But the pendulum has swung way out of whack. A bad idea is still bad and the pivot-happy world we’re in today feels suboptimal.… There are exceptions, of course, but most great companies start with a great idea, not a pivot.… [I]f you look at the track record of pivots, they don’t become big companies. I myself used to believe ideas didn’t matter that much, but I’m very sure that’s wrong now.
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More generally, I agree that this claim clashes strongly with some rationalists’ worldviews, and it’s plausible that it just increases the variance of outcomes and not the mean. But given that outcomes are power-law distributed (mean is proportional to variance!), the number of people endorsing it from on top of a giant pile of utility, and the perhaps surprisingly low number of highly successful rationalists, I’d recommend rationalists treat it with curiosity instead of dismissiveness.
I do agree that it increases the variance of outcomes. I think it decreases the mean, but I’m less sure about that. Here’s one way I think it could work, if it does work: If some people are generally pessimistic about their chances of success, and this causes them to update their beliefs closer to reality, then Altman’s advice would help. That is, if some people give up too easily, it will help them, while the outside world (investors, the market, etc) will put a check on those who are overly optimistic. However, I think it’s still important to note that “not giving up” can lead not just to lack of success, but also to value destruction (Pets.com; Theranos; WeWork).
Thanks for the “Young Rationalists” link, I hadn’t read that before. I think there are a fair number of successful rationalists, but they mostly focus on doing their work rather than engaging with the rationalist community. One example of this is Cliff Asness—here’s a essay by him that takes a strongly rationalist view.
I think it’s still important to note that “not giving up” can lead not just to lack of success, but also to value destruction (Pets.com; Theranos; WeWork).
If you’re going to interpret the original “don’t give up” advice so literally and blindly that “no matter what the challenges are I’m going to figure them out” includes committing massive fraud, then yes, it will be bad advice for you. That’s a really remarkably uncharitable interpretation.
I don’t think founder/investor class conflict makes that much sense as an explanation for that. It’s easy to imagine a world in which investors wanted their money returned when the team updates downwards on their likelihood of success. (In fact, that sometimes happens! I don’t know whether Sam would do that but my guess is only if the founders want to give up.)
I also don’t think at least Sam glorifies pivots or ignores opportunity cost. For instance the first lecture from his startup course:
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More generally, I agree that this claim clashes strongly with some rationalists’ worldviews, and it’s plausible that it just increases the variance of outcomes and not the mean. But given that outcomes are power-law distributed (mean is proportional to variance!), the number of people endorsing it from on top of a giant pile of utility, and the perhaps surprisingly low number of highly successful rationalists, I’d recommend rationalists treat it with curiosity instead of dismissiveness.
I do agree that it increases the variance of outcomes. I think it decreases the mean, but I’m less sure about that. Here’s one way I think it could work, if it does work: If some people are generally pessimistic about their chances of success, and this causes them to update their beliefs closer to reality, then Altman’s advice would help. That is, if some people give up too easily, it will help them, while the outside world (investors, the market, etc) will put a check on those who are overly optimistic. However, I think it’s still important to note that “not giving up” can lead not just to lack of success, but also to value destruction (Pets.com; Theranos; WeWork).
Thanks for the “Young Rationalists” link, I hadn’t read that before. I think there are a fair number of successful rationalists, but they mostly focus on doing their work rather than engaging with the rationalist community. One example of this is Cliff Asness—here’s a essay by him that takes a strongly rationalist view.
If you’re going to interpret the original “don’t give up” advice so literally and blindly that “no matter what the challenges are I’m going to figure them out” includes committing massive fraud, then yes, it will be bad advice for you. That’s a really remarkably uncharitable interpretation.
Not sure if this is your typo or a LW bug, but “essay” appears not to actually be hyperlinked?
I think I mis-pasted the link. I have edited it, but it’s suppose to go to https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/A-Gut-Punch