I wanted to imply that the temporal directionality of causation is a consequence of the Second Law of Thermodynamics. I guess the point would be that the “less likely” and “more likely” in your gloss are only correct if you restrict yourself to a macroscopic level of description. Described microscopically, both regions are equally likely, according to standard statistical mechanics. This is related to the idea that non-fundamental macroscopic factors make a difference when it comes to the direction of causal influence.
But yeah, this was based on misreading your use of “fundamental” as referring to physical fundamentality. If you meant decision-theoretically fundamental, then I agree with you. I thought you were espousing the Yudkowsky-esque line that causal relations are part of the fundamental furniture of the universe and that the Causal Markov Condition is deeper and more fundamental than the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
I wanted to imply that the temporal directionality of causation is a consequence of the Second Law of Thermodynamics. I guess the point would be that the “less likely” and “more likely” in your gloss are only correct if you restrict yourself to a macroscopic level of description. Described microscopically, both regions are equally likely, according to standard statistical mechanics. This is related to the idea that non-fundamental macroscopic factors make a difference when it comes to the direction of causal influence.
But yeah, this was based on misreading your use of “fundamental” as referring to physical fundamentality. If you meant decision-theoretically fundamental, then I agree with you. I thought you were espousing the Yudkowsky-esque line that causal relations are part of the fundamental furniture of the universe and that the Causal Markov Condition is deeper and more fundamental than the Second Law of Thermodynamics.